Ya Libnan – 4 Week Roundup – 9/23/09

http://yalibnan.com/site/archives/2009/08/wednesday_news_61.php

Wednesday News Briefs & Editorial
Published: Wednesday, 26 August, 2009 @ 12:04 PM in Beirut

Beirut – The Syrian regime of Bashar al Assad is back in action in Lebanon and is doing all it can to disrupt the formation of the cabinet through its allies the Hezbollah -led opposition. According to Syrian observers Syria is trying to make up for the loss of its allies in the polls by forcing on Lebanon’s majority the so called “ national Unity government “ in which the opposition will have the lion’s share of ministries through which they can control the country.

An Nahar political sources have reported that careful reading of the Syrian political stance towards Lebanon indicates that never before has an Arab country through its official media demanded that another Arab country should amend its constitution during the formation of a government .

An Nahar sources have also reported that Syria is allocating specific roles to its allies aimed at obstructing the formation of the cabinet unless their demands are met . While General Michel Aoun is charged with attacking the Prime minister designate and making impossible demands, Lebanon’s top Shiite cleric Grand Ayatollah Mohammed Hussein Fadlallah is charged with attacking Patriarch Nasrallah Boutros Sfeir who has been the most outspoken Christian spiritual leader against the obstruction of the Lebanese democratic institutions .

Yesterday Fadlallah slammed Maronite Patriarch Nasrallah Sfeir over calling for a cabinet based on the outcome of the parliamentary polls. In a remark aimed at changing the constitution Fadlallah said : “We call for a popular majority and popular referendum … so that people would have their say.”

Fp 2009 Update – Week 24 – The Cable

There is nothing light and easy about Week 24.  Iran went up in a frenzy of tweets and reporter arrests and hundreds of thousands of people marching on the streets for the right to an “election” rather than a “selection” process in the face of the Iranian Islamic Establishment.  It took Obama 10 days of riots and street beatings and killings and arrests to publicly come out and condemn the atrocities committed by Iran – the entire time, he was cautioning the Iranian Islamic Republic that the world was watching while sticking to his diplomacy engagement guns, leading certain reporters to believe that Obama was on the side of the Islamic Regime and Ahmadinejad.   The week started with Lieberman (of Israel) visited Washington.  Lieberman is a right wing Israeli with a penchant for saying exactly what is on his mind – a controversial leader of a partner that helped to solidify Netanyahu’s Prime Minister position, he made the D.C. rounds.  Mitchell stole much of the thunder of Lieberman’s visit with Secretary Clinton, since he returned from his 4th Jerusalem Shuttle and plans to meet with the Democrat Leadership of the House and Senate to discuss the Israeli-Arab peace possibilities.   The Ayatollah Khameini’s Friday speech left no one with any delusions about whether or not the election would stand, and Gary Sick’s commentary on the matter is well articulated.  Dennis Ross’ shift to the National Security Council is ruffling feathers across the board as he hops to the head of the line.  The Realist school, led by Mitchell over the Levant Theatre, is now face to face with the New Realist school of Ross in the Central Region – the differences are profound for those who have read the Ross/Markovsky new release, “Myths, Illusions, & Peace” – and Mitchell understands that he is in a competition of theory at the highest diplomatic level.  John Kyl tries to throw a monkey into the wrench of the State Department nominees over Obama’s idealism on the Nuclear disarmament/Russia front.  Barzun & Kaplan, huge Obama investors and advisors, cash in their support chips as slots in the Ambassador realm along with 5 career FSOs.  And as Tehran heats up with opposition members, a New York Times journalist escapes his Taliban kidnappers in Afghanistan after 7 months of captivity in which the NYT conveniently kept silent about the situation for the most part.  Robin Wright speaks eloquently in a Times article about the Iranian situation and the symbol of the opposition, Neda.  Hillary Clinton officially brings in Blumenthal under her wing and the United States officially opens diplomatic ties with Syria, by returning an Ambassador to Damascus after a 4 year spat.  Laura Rozen is at her best this week.   The Cable is, bar none, the best barometer for the pressures in the Washington D.C. scene that I have found.

Gary H. Johnson, Jr. (7/26/09 2:20pmEST)

http://thecable.foreignpolicy.com

Israeli FM Lieberman’s Washington meetings
Wed, 06/17/2009 – 10:43am
Israeli Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman, founder of the right wing Yisrael Beiteinyu party, has arrived in Washington and is scheduled to meet with his counterpart Secretary of State Hillary Clinton at 2pm this afternoon.

There is not a lot of publicity about his visit, no doubt because Lieberman is a controversial figure at home and abroad, who has said Israel’s Arab citizens should be required to sign loyalty oaths; numerous Israeli reports have indicated that Lieberman is the subject of an on-going corruption investigation.

Among his other planned Washington meetings, according to the Israeli Foreign Minister’s bureau: National Security Advisor General James L. Jones, the chairmen of the Senate and House Foreign Affairs Committees, Sen. John Kerry (D-MA) and Rep. Howard Berman (D-CA), the chairman of the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee Sen. Joe Lieberman, House Minority Whip Rep. Eric Cantor (R-VA), Senate Minority Whip Sen. Jon Kyl (R-AZ) and unspecified other officials.  Lieberman also plans to visit the U.S. Holocaust Museum where a gunman killed a security guard last week, the bureau release said.

Ya Libnan 11 Day Roundup – 6/30/09

http://yalibnan.com/site/archives/2009/06/friday_news_bri_53.php
Friday News Briefs
Published: Friday, 19 June, 2009 @ 9:22 AM in Beirut
Beirut – The top story today in Lebanon is the meeting between Hezbollah Secretary General Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah and Democratic Gathering parliamentary bloc leader and head of the Progressive Socialist party ( PSP) MP. Walid Jumblatt. The meeting took place overnight according to PSP sources.

They discussed the past problems and specifically the May 2008 violence and both praised the efforts of Talal Arslan during and after that period .

They also discussed the future prospects for Lebanon and the region, and stressed the need to work together to move Lebanon and the region from the crisis state to the state of cooperation for the sake of the people of Lebanon.

They also confirmed to continue to work together towards full reconciliation, and agreed to continue communication and consultation during the next phase.

As Safir newspaper said Friday that the agenda of the talks included the stage that followed the Doha agreement and the challenges that emerged after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s latest speech.

According to As Safir, the two officials were also to discuss prospects of dialogue between Jumblatt and Damascus, in addition to relations between Hezbollah and the Progressive Socialist Party.

The location of the meeting will of course remain a top secret since Nasrallah has been hiding ever since the 2006 war begun

Ya Libnan 12 day Roundup – 6/18/09

http://yalibnan.com/site/archives/2009/06/sunday_news_bri_51.php
Sunday News Briefs – Elections 2009
Published: Sunday, 7 June, 2009 @ 8:03 AM in Beirut
Beirut: Sunday June 7, 2009 election will determine the future of Lebanon and the pressure will be mainly on the divided Christians communities to decide what kind of Lebanon they really want. There is a huge concern that Lebanon could lose its identity if the Iranian and Syrian backed March 8 wins the election.

The irony of this election is that several of the present candidates had their immediate relatives reportedly killed by the Syrians who are the closest allies of the March 8 Hezbollah-led coalition:

Nadim Gemayel’s father, former president Bashir Gemayel was assassinated on Sept. 14, 1982

Sami Gemayel’s brother Pierre, who was Lebanon’s industry minister was assassinated on November 21, 2006 . Sami is Nadim’s cousin

Michel Mouawad’s father former president Rene Mouawad was assassinated on November 22, 1989

Nayla Tueni’s father former MP and al Nahar chief Gebran Tueni was assassinated on December 12, 2005

Walid Jumblatt’s father, Kamal Jumblatt , founder of the Progressive Socialist Party was assassinated on March 16, 1977

Saad Hariri’s father , Rafik Hariri , former Prime Minister of Lebanon was assassinated on February 14, 2005

Lebanon’s Maronite Patriarch Nasrallah Butros Sfeir sounded an alarm Sunday when he said ” Lebanon is facing a threat to entity and Arab identity”.

He called on all Lebanese to pay attention to such dangers and to “adopt courageous stances that would further establish our Lebanese identity and maintain Lebanon as a free country filled with moral virtues, full sovereignty and achieved independence.” He added : “We must work hard on thwarting all attempts that if successful could change the face of Lebanon.”

Sfeir is aware of the danger that even though the Christians are no longer the majority, the fact they are divided will decide who will win or lose the election and he doesn’t want the Christians to be blamed for handing out the country to the Iranians.

The question is: Will the Christians listen to Sfeir , their spiritual leader who has been called the “conscious of Lebanon”

Or will they listen to General Aoun who has aligned himself with the Iranian and Syrian- backed Hezbollah group with the hope of becoming the next president when he is 80 ? Aoun himself was defeated by the Syrian army in October 1990 and forced into exile. Aoun returned to Lebanon after the Cedar revolution led by March 14 alliance forced Syria out of Lebanon.

There is a huge concern that a Hezbollah victory could spell the end of the Lebanese identity and could turn Lebanon into another Gaza

The other big concern is that Hezbollah , who has been calling for a regime change could turn Lebanon into a Welayat-el Faqih (guardianship of the Islamic Jurists) type state similar to Iran and in such a case Lebanon will completely lose its identity.

When the Lebanese wake up on Monday they will be able to figure out what kind of face Lebanon will have and at that point it will be too late to change their mind. The time to decide the future is now!!!

Ya Libnan 2 Week Roundup – 6/6/09

http://yalibnan.com/site/archives/2009/05/saturday_news_b_44.php

Saturday News Briefs
Published: Saturday, 23 May, 2009 @ 7:30 PM in Beirut
Beirut- Speaker Nabih Berri delivered an election campaign speech full of promises today in Baalbeck and tried to present the opposition as a moderate force that only wants the best for Lebanon. In his speech he insisted that the opposition is not power hungry and wants if successful in the upcoming elections to form a national unity government

Berri tried to reassure March 14 supporters and all the Lebanese people that the arms of the resistance will only be used against the Israeli enemy. But Berri did not explain how he can make such a promise, since the arms are not his and are in Hezbollah’s full control. Hezbollah after all used its arms when it occupied West Beirut on May 7, 2008 and its attacks against the Druze strongholds in Mt Lebanon.

Berri also said ” In the name of the opposition, without exception, we want the state, we want the Lebanese state but we don’t want power. We want the full implementation of the Taef accord. We want the court and the truth. We want to know who attempted to kill Lebanon with Hariri’s murder.
But according to observers the opposition always fought the Hariri tribunal and always criticized the Taef accord and always undermined the state. The mass resignation of all the Hezbollah and Amal ministers and the occupation of downtown Beirut are a clear example of undermining the state.

Hezbollah Gutted – Eric Follath’s Remarkable Revelations

http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,626412,00.html#ref=rss
05/23/2009 01:31 PMBREAKTHROUGH IN TRIBUNAL INVESTIGATION
New Evidence Points to Hezbollah in Hariri Murder
By Erich Follath

The United Nations special tribunal investigating the murder of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik al-Hariri has reached surprising new conclusions — and it is keeping them secret. According to information obtained by SPIEGEL, investigators now believe Hezbollah was behind the Hariri murder.

FP 2009 Update – Week 16 – The Cable

Laura Rozen hammers Harman this week on The Cable.   It is obvious Harman was involved in a scandal; however, the only reason we know is because of the FISA wiretapping of a Senator’s phones.  This case demonstrates the fact that, since Obama decided to maintain the current policy on domestic wiretapping, any contact Republicans have with FBI surveiled “suspected” moles will be known publicly at politically heightened moments like elections and democrat faux pas.  For Harman to lawyer up is an indication that she is worried about a lawsuit for her lunge for political power.  The most interesting element of Rozen’s blog this week, to me, was the development of Lute’s expansion of “war czar” reach to the extents of the MENASA region.  No mention was made of the Brussels Somalia donor conference, which was disappointing, just as it was disappointing that the Tokyo conference was not fully covered by Rozen, considering billions are on the table.  The Democrat yoke seems to have the attitude, ”The Kerry-Lugar initiative to Pakistan is only 7.5 billion dollars over 5 years, what is that compared to 11 billion dollars for one month of US Occupation in Iraq…oh, a billion more for reconstruction and stability…what is that compared to the cost of US occupation?”   This mentality bleeds into the Western Media as stories are omitted based on fffinancial rather than strategic value.   Indeed, apparently it is not real money, in terms of National Media coverage, until it crosses the 11 billion dollar barrier.   It is disconcerting that the cost of war and the cost of stability are being measured in terms of the cost of US occupatio:  US occupation or invasion, ideally, has nothing to do with money and everything to do with principles, values, law and freedom.  To measure the use of US invasion or occupation forces on their financial cost rather than their strategic aim is a mistake that is noticeable only in terms of omission.  

Rozen covers Hillary Clinton’s 100 day mileage and then notes her landing in Iraq.  A dinner held in Saudi Arabia by Prince Turki al Faisal is going to draw a crowd from Washington.  No doubt, the Taliban are the issue on the table.  The Iranian-sponsored Shia-Taliban are apparently holding the Afghanistan Opium routes open all along the Helmand River valley.    The Balochistan Steppe of Pakistan to Afghanistan’s South and Iran’s East is the staging area for all parties to the storm.  The fact that Prince Faisal with Gul created the Taliban nightmare will no doubt be on the docket for discussion in the closed, smoky circles around hookas and other teas as Saudi Arabia helps to formulate a masterplan for the MENASA region, while attempting to secure the Pakistani Nukes from the backlash of the raising of 15 or so Frankenstein Monsters in the Deoband Wahhab Madrassas and ISI training grounds…a Talibani force that is less than a hundred miles from overtaking Islamabad.  With Ross heading to the region, from Egypt on the 28th to start indicates that messages from the Palestinian Front will be couriered to the Saudi Heads directly from Ross to Turki at a nice sit down meeting we will read about in books 5 or 6 years from now by aids and soon to be outed insiders.  The main question is whether or not economic issues will be discussed in this meeting or whether or not these discussions will be put on hold for the Fiscal Stability Board.   Since Ross is heading in and he is meeting with Prince Turki, the main issue will be containing and dismantling the threat of the Taliban while leaving the road open to Iran’s maintenance – you know, to make sure that the leadership of Iran get their black market money while curtailing and stabilizing the opium trade into manageable gangs. 

Gary H. Johnson, Jr. (4/29/09, 3:11pmEST)

FP 2009 Update – Week 15 – The Cable

Laura Rozen of The Cable does it again.  The Foreign Policy correspondent is always on the cutting edge of the events that effect Washington, DC.   Week 15 saw the confirmation of ex-Korea Ambassador Christopher Hill to the position of Iraq Ambassadorship.  Questions loom over whether Michael Oren will become the Israeli Ambassador to the United States.  Judith McHale and a host of other names were set forward by the Obama Administration for confirmation to begin week 15, including: Fred P. Hochberg for the position of President and Chairman of the Export-Import Bank of the United States; and Francisco “Frank” J. Sánchez to become the Under Secretary for International Trade, Department of Commerce.  Laura makes note of the Obama Administration’s indication that he will not seek regime change in Iran and the fact that paranoia on the Iranian front, particularly in the jailed journalist case will be a telling indicator of the success of the new diplomatic posture of constructive engagement.  Hillary Clinton squares off with Pirates in the Somalia Jihadist sphere, and interestingly, Rozen updates her post about the tough stance against piracy with the following: “The U.S. will be represented at the Somalia donors conference in Brussels by Acting Assistant Secretary for African Affairs Phillip Carter and an as yet unnamed representative from USAID, State Department spokesman Robert Wood said Thursday.”  It is interesting that noone else but Rozen is speaking of the donor conference in Brussels for Somalia on April 23rd, the fact that there is a Contact Group, and in the same breath that she pledges an unknown sum of money to the government in Somalia which has declared Shariah Law, Clinton says that the State Department will not accept bribery or ransom as a methodology.   The Summit of the Americas was preceded by Obama heading to Mexico to discuss the situation with Calderon, but Rozen does not mention that the IMF suddenly held $45 billion for extending more Mexico grants and loans.  Obama also opened up to the Castro regime in Cuba and laxed the embargo, but Rozen’s blog decidedly skipped over the handshake with Chavez and the three days of the conference, which makes one wonder if she is writing an article on the topic.  Nye seems a lock for the “Tokyo” Ambassador Slot, while Inderfurth declined to comment on the possibility that he is headed to South Asia.  It looks like Holbrooke and Biden have plans for the Presidency in Afghanistan that the Karzai clan is not a part of with the Presidency up for grabs in August.  Rozen’s analysis of the “whys” are weak…in reality Hekmatyar has been in contact with the Democratic Party in the US for some time, lobbying to remove the Tajik government – Karzai leads Tajiks and usurped the position from his Quetta (Baluchistan, Pakistan) home.  Bush felt he would fight the Taliban because they assassinated his father…the problem is, Baluchistan is the source of the drug and gun financiers in the region.  As Laura notes, “Feltman and Daniel Shapiro, the NSC senior director for the Middle East and North Africa, met with Syrian foreign ministry officials in Damascus last month” while discussing the coming elections in Lebanon and Iran and the slow process that seems to be smoothing out with Saudi Arabia’s rapproachment attempts with Syria.  Romer is headed to India, after losing out on the CIA head slot.  Is Brownback jockeying for a Governorship with Sibelius heading to HHS?  Former CIA heads buck back on Obama’s decision to release torture memos of the Bush era.   Strategy meeting on Afghanistan held by Holbrooke in Washington that was closed to the public: “Obama’s Af-Pak czar Richard Holbrooke is headlining the invite-only and off-the-record pow-wow at the U.S. Institute of Peace Thursday.”  Why would the meeting be closed?  What happened to transparency?

Gary H. Johnson, Jr. (4/29/09, 12:33pmEST)

Ya Libnan Weekly Roundup – 4/18/09

http://yalibnan.com/site/archives/2009/04/saturday_news_b_38.php
Saturday News Briefs
Published: Saturday, 11 April, 2009 @ 7:28 PM in Beirut
Beirut – Finally Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah admitted in his televised speech last night that one of those arrested in Egypt over terrorism charges is a member of Hezbollah, but at the same time he rejected all accusations by Egypt that his group was plotting attacks in Cairo.
“I fully reject and deny all charges that Hezbollah was intending to launch an act of aggression in Egypt or at any part of the world,” Nasrallah said .

Nasrallah escalated his attacks against Egypt. “The Egyptian regime should be charged and condemned for besieging Gaza. The regime works day and night on destroying Gaza tunnels,” Nasrallah charged.

His statement comes two days after Egyptian Public Prosecutor Abdel-Magid Mohammed accused Nasrallah of dispatching agents to Egypt during Israel’s offensive in the Gaza Strip with the aim of recruiting local agents to conduct attacks, and to incite the people and the armed forces to revolt, to spy on Egypt and to smuggle weapons and cash to Hamas in the Gaza Strip.

UAIS Journal Entry – 4/21/09

When considering the myriad Islamic Supremacist groups in the world, it is hard to determine the geopolitical realities of their rise, due to the blood and carnage of martyrdom operations and the putrid clouds hazing the wakes of suicide bombers.  Typically, when analyzing the terrifying signatures of the gruesome events in Islam’s cultural upheaval, the Western observer is immediately struck by a genocidal cult ideology that has driven what were once normal men or women to the point of the ultimate act of sacrifice for a twisted aim.  When considering the reality of modern Islamic extremism, to maintain a reasoned and objective focus, it is important to identify the drivers that give oxygen to the flames of contemporary jihadism that lie beyond the veil.  Today, when attempting to map the modern suicide cults of jihad and Islamism, two areas hold particular prominence in the Western eye:  the Levant and the Peshawaar.  When the Islamic Supremacist ideology is placed in the backseat, and societal barometers and geopolitical markers man the wheel what becomes remarkably clear from the shotgun is the fact that the primary elements that unite a Jihadist Movement into an Organization of global reach or into a dominant political role in a culture or localized tribal setting are instability, corruption, and perceived injustices in the Muslim demographic.  Indeed, if one were to identify the chief ideological element in the ideology of Islamic Supremacism that defines the nature of geopolitical power at the local or tribal level, the Dawa of Islam is the crucible of legitimacy for establishing both entrenched presence and popular support at the Islamic Street level.  To establish a nuanced and objective view of the trials of the Peshawaar and the Levant, the epicenters of modern Islamic Supremacist Extremism, a proper balance of geopolitical and ideological drivers must be attained.   

Gary H. Johnson, Jr. (4/21/09, 1:14amEST; updated 3:25pmEST))