Ya Libnan – 4 Week Roundup – 9/23/09

http://yalibnan.com/site/archives/2009/08/wednesday_news_61.php

Wednesday News Briefs & Editorial
Published: Wednesday, 26 August, 2009 @ 12:04 PM in Beirut

Beirut – The Syrian regime of Bashar al Assad is back in action in Lebanon and is doing all it can to disrupt the formation of the cabinet through its allies the Hezbollah -led opposition. According to Syrian observers Syria is trying to make up for the loss of its allies in the polls by forcing on Lebanon’s majority the so called “ national Unity government “ in which the opposition will have the lion’s share of ministries through which they can control the country.

An Nahar political sources have reported that careful reading of the Syrian political stance towards Lebanon indicates that never before has an Arab country through its official media demanded that another Arab country should amend its constitution during the formation of a government .

An Nahar sources have also reported that Syria is allocating specific roles to its allies aimed at obstructing the formation of the cabinet unless their demands are met . While General Michel Aoun is charged with attacking the Prime minister designate and making impossible demands, Lebanon’s top Shiite cleric Grand Ayatollah Mohammed Hussein Fadlallah is charged with attacking Patriarch Nasrallah Boutros Sfeir who has been the most outspoken Christian spiritual leader against the obstruction of the Lebanese democratic institutions .

Yesterday Fadlallah slammed Maronite Patriarch Nasrallah Sfeir over calling for a cabinet based on the outcome of the parliamentary polls. In a remark aimed at changing the constitution Fadlallah said : “We call for a popular majority and popular referendum … so that people would have their say.”

FP 2009 Update – Week 30 – The Cable

Week 30 at The Cable was wild.  Hillary Clinton and Tim Geithner start off out the shoot on the U.S.-China Economic future in what can be considered an unprecedented Wall Street Journal oped piece focusing on bilateral relations and a new strategy forward in a multipronged approach to stabilizing world markets, with three main areas of concern for dialogue: maintaining economic relations, climate change issues, and complementary security issues.   Secretary Clinton then hits Meet the Press to discuss the North Korea slight on her person and she discusses Iran and Afghanistan frankly…not two days later Secretary Clinton hit Thailand and raised the possibility of a “nuclear umbrella” for the Sunni World to defend against a nuclear Iran, which led Israelis to worry over whether the U.S. was conceding the nuclear weapons issue to the Iranian Establishment.   Gates heads to Israel to let everyone in the world know that the military option remains on the table on the Iranian Nuclear issue, to do top-brass damage control for Mitchell’s focus on halting Israeli settlements to achieve a two-state solution.  More or less, Gates’ announcement made clear that Iran’s window for establishing diplomatic talks with the United States is shrinking and has time limits.  Secretary Clinton’s team announces its Africa trip starting on the 5th of August, designed to increase trade relations; while the nominees for Latin American Ambassadorships, Valenzuela and Shannon are pushed through to the Senate.  Obama’s meeting with the progressive American Jewish groups like J Street, whose anti-Zionist focus has led them to announce that three quarters of American Jews favor a two-state solution for the future of a Palestinian resolution.   Judah Grunstein of WPR notes the engagement policy espoused by Clinton on Iran seeks an Iran who respects its “right to nuclear energy” but not a nuclear bomb, and Trita Parsi makes the case for a diplomatic pause with the Iranian regime out of a “wait and see” attitude over the Iranian Islamic Establishment’s resolution of its opposition anger boiling over onto its streets since the June 12th election results.    By far, the highlight of Week 30 at Laura Rozen’s Foreign Policy blog is found in the activity of Holbrooke and McChrystal in the AfPak theatre.  Holbrooke, who is in charge of the AfPak at the Obama Administration,  announces that he is tearing up the Bush policy of poppy eradication in the AfPak.  It was important to note that David Miliband, the Foreign Secretary for Britain, made the D.C. rounds and discussed the upcoming elections in Afghanistan in a State Department speakeasy with Hillary Clinton.   And McChrystal, who just assumed overall command in early June, discussed the US strategy to win the hearts and minds of the Afghani people, with a new focus on protecting civilians from harm, which is being put together in a Strategic Assessment group.  Laura Rozen immediately pounces and names the team of McChrystal’s advisors, which of course includes blogger Andrew Exum, who just happens to be a fellow over at the Center for New American Security (CNAS).   Holbrooke follows up his D.C. rounds with a Fort McNair policy shuffle for top insiders.   The week ends with more controversy on the settlement issue as the international community is angered by Israel’s eviction of 56 Palestinians from their East Jerusalem homes in preparation for demolition to increase settlement construction.

-Gary H. Johnson, Jr. (8/4/09, 8:57pmEST)

http://thecable.foreignpolicy.com

U.S.-China dialogue gets underway
Mon, 07/27/2009 – 12:05am
Tomorrow kicks off the first meeting of the U.S. China Strategic and Economic Dialogue, the Obama administration’s twist on a process started under former Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson. That process, known as the Strategic Economic Dialogue (no “and”), was primarily intended to address bilateral economic issues such as the dollar-renminbi exchange rate.

The two countries — which have become known as the “G-2″ in foreign-policy circles due to their preeminent size and geopolitical reach — will still be tackling economic issues like the global financial crisis. But this time, a State Department official tells Foreign Policy, the agenda is “much broader and more comprehensive,” encompassing global issues such as climate change, and regional ones such as North Korea, Afghanistan, and Pakistan.

Two top-ranking Chinese officials, Vice Premier Wang Qishan and State Councilor Dai Bingguo, will be in Washington for meetings Monday and Tuesday with Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, who has just returned from meetings in India and Thailand.

Fp 2009 Update – Week 24 – The Cable

There is nothing light and easy about Week 24.  Iran went up in a frenzy of tweets and reporter arrests and hundreds of thousands of people marching on the streets for the right to an “election” rather than a “selection” process in the face of the Iranian Islamic Establishment.  It took Obama 10 days of riots and street beatings and killings and arrests to publicly come out and condemn the atrocities committed by Iran – the entire time, he was cautioning the Iranian Islamic Republic that the world was watching while sticking to his diplomacy engagement guns, leading certain reporters to believe that Obama was on the side of the Islamic Regime and Ahmadinejad.   The week started with Lieberman (of Israel) visited Washington.  Lieberman is a right wing Israeli with a penchant for saying exactly what is on his mind – a controversial leader of a partner that helped to solidify Netanyahu’s Prime Minister position, he made the D.C. rounds.  Mitchell stole much of the thunder of Lieberman’s visit with Secretary Clinton, since he returned from his 4th Jerusalem Shuttle and plans to meet with the Democrat Leadership of the House and Senate to discuss the Israeli-Arab peace possibilities.   The Ayatollah Khameini’s Friday speech left no one with any delusions about whether or not the election would stand, and Gary Sick’s commentary on the matter is well articulated.  Dennis Ross’ shift to the National Security Council is ruffling feathers across the board as he hops to the head of the line.  The Realist school, led by Mitchell over the Levant Theatre, is now face to face with the New Realist school of Ross in the Central Region – the differences are profound for those who have read the Ross/Markovsky new release, “Myths, Illusions, & Peace” – and Mitchell understands that he is in a competition of theory at the highest diplomatic level.  John Kyl tries to throw a monkey into the wrench of the State Department nominees over Obama’s idealism on the Nuclear disarmament/Russia front.  Barzun & Kaplan, huge Obama investors and advisors, cash in their support chips as slots in the Ambassador realm along with 5 career FSOs.  And as Tehran heats up with opposition members, a New York Times journalist escapes his Taliban kidnappers in Afghanistan after 7 months of captivity in which the NYT conveniently kept silent about the situation for the most part.  Robin Wright speaks eloquently in a Times article about the Iranian situation and the symbol of the opposition, Neda.  Hillary Clinton officially brings in Blumenthal under her wing and the United States officially opens diplomatic ties with Syria, by returning an Ambassador to Damascus after a 4 year spat.  Laura Rozen is at her best this week.   The Cable is, bar none, the best barometer for the pressures in the Washington D.C. scene that I have found.

Gary H. Johnson, Jr. (7/26/09 2:20pmEST)

http://thecable.foreignpolicy.com

Israeli FM Lieberman’s Washington meetings
Wed, 06/17/2009 – 10:43am
Israeli Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman, founder of the right wing Yisrael Beiteinyu party, has arrived in Washington and is scheduled to meet with his counterpart Secretary of State Hillary Clinton at 2pm this afternoon.

There is not a lot of publicity about his visit, no doubt because Lieberman is a controversial figure at home and abroad, who has said Israel’s Arab citizens should be required to sign loyalty oaths; numerous Israeli reports have indicated that Lieberman is the subject of an on-going corruption investigation.

Among his other planned Washington meetings, according to the Israeli Foreign Minister’s bureau: National Security Advisor General James L. Jones, the chairmen of the Senate and House Foreign Affairs Committees, Sen. John Kerry (D-MA) and Rep. Howard Berman (D-CA), the chairman of the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee Sen. Joe Lieberman, House Minority Whip Rep. Eric Cantor (R-VA), Senate Minority Whip Sen. Jon Kyl (R-AZ) and unspecified other officials.  Lieberman also plans to visit the U.S. Holocaust Museum where a gunman killed a security guard last week, the bureau release said.

FP 2009 Update – Week 21 – The Cable

Week 21 at Laura Rozen’s The Cable was instructive in many ways…  Carl Levin holds up a key Middle East Diplomat’s nomination confirmation to bring light on an age old Libya reparations battle.   Egyptian and Palestinian leadership descend on DC.   Saudi Arabia is added to Obama’s stopover list for his overseas jaunt which is designed to continue building international G-20 support and Muslim Accomodation.  Paul Farmer’s name is added to the list of possible heads for USAID – his 20 year history of making water out of wine in the poverty laden world medical community is unmatched.   Netanyahu pragmatically offers a settlement freeze in exchange for unconditional support on Iranian issue – beyond that, his response was basically “What the Hell does Obama want from me?”   Saudi Arabia puts a leash on Western journalists following Obama’s trail.  Israeeli Foreign Minister Barak has an impromptu 15 minute meeting with Barack Obama, who drops in on his meeting with Gen. Jim Jones.  Sarkozy begins overtures and direct engagement with Iran as a lead up to Obama’s travel plans.

Gary H. Johnson, Jr. (2:57amEST)

http://thecable.foreignpolicy.com

Libya claim delays Feltman confirmation vote
Tue, 05/26/2009 – 3:18pm
A compensation claim regarding Libya appears to be delaying the confirmation vote of Jeffrey Feltman to become assistant secretary of state for Near Eastern affairs, The Cable has learned.

Feltman’s nomination was forwarded by the Senate Foreign Relations Committee to the full Senate last week. But last Friday, before they broke for Memorial Day, Sen. Carl Levin (D-MI), usually a reliable Obama White House ally, put a hold delaying a Senate vote on the nomination until after the week-long recess, apparently at the request of an unidentified constituent with an unspecified, Libya-related claim. The case does not have to do with the 1988 bombing of Pan Am flight 103 over Lockerbie Scotland, but officials would not specify what it was regarding.

Ya Libnan – 2 Week Update – 7/22/09

http://yalibnan.com/site/archives/2009/07/wednesday_news_54.php
Wednesday News Briefs & Editorial
Published: Wednesday, 8 July, 2009 @ 10:08 AM in Beirut
Beirut- Despite UN Security Council resolution 1701 that halted the 2006 war between Israel and Hezbollah, the Israeli spy agency Mossad has been focusing on Lebanon ever since . A Lebanese army colonel suspected of spying for Israel fled to the Jewish state last week and two other Lebanese army colonels have been detained between May and June on charges of spying for Israel.

The army colonel that fled was identified as D.J. and two the other detained Lebanese army colonels were identified as Mansour Diab and Shahid Toumiyeh.

The probe into spying for Israel that has led to more than 50 arrests so far and 20 of those detained have been formally charged.

Lebanon has described the arrests as a major blow to Israel’s intelligence-gathering

Lebanon has formally complained to the United Nations about its findings, accusing Israel of breaching UNSCR 1701 and U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon said Tuesday that he was concerned at the Lebanese allegations of spying.

“The allegations, if proved, could endanger the fragile cessation of hostilities that exists between Israel and Lebanon,” Ban said in his report .

Hezbollah, which is the primary target of the Israeli spying activity has called for the execution of those convicted. Apparently one of the suspects was involved in the 2004 assassination of Hezbollah commander Ghalib Awali, security officials have said. Awali was killed by a bomb in the southern suburbs of Beirut.

According to Johnny Haddad, a military analyst , “Hezbollah, which is backed by Iran and Syria has been for years intimidating and demoralizing the Lebanese army and this has helped Israel in recruiting army members for its spying activity.”

This is of course no excuses for spying for an aggressive, expansionist and vicious enemy like Israel , but that is what happens when an army finds itself intimidated by a militant group within its own borders and whose objectives may not be in Lebanon’s best interests. Hezbollah, which claims to be a resistance force with the sole objective of liberating occupied Lebanese land and defending the Lebanese territories has used during the past 3 years its weapons against the Lebanese citizens: May 7 2008 occupation of west Beirut and the unsuccessful attempt to occupy mount Lebanon are witnesses to Hezbollah’s use of its arms against the citizens of this country.

FP 2009 Update – Week 19 – The Cable

Laura Rozen’s blog, The Cable, over at Foreign Policy Magazine, is by far and away the most informative blog on the in crowd of Washington D.C.  Week 19 witnessed Jon Huntsman taking off from Utah to tilt with the Chinese, the NIC chairman will be Kojm (worked with Lee Hamilton – Iraq Study Group), Matt Burrows, the Fatalist, will remain as the NIC No.3.  Obama’s July plans are released, planning to hit Italy, Russia, and Ghana as the Lebanese elections unfold.  The most important element of Rozen’s blog during Week 19 was the meeting that took place between Netanyahu and Obama.  Their meeting was constructive, but they locked horns on multiple issues, the Q&A segment seems to find two guys that speak the same language but don’t understand one another, except on one concept – linkage.  There is no link between the Israeli-Palestinian Peace and the Israeli-Arab Relations – Obama has been well versed in Dennis Ross’ diplomatic theory on this matter.  In a way, Week 19 began and ended with the Bilderberg Conference, considering Yost, a former Bilderberg Secretary General was tapped to direct the Long Range Analysis unit of the NIC to start the week, and questions loomed over Treasury Secretary Geithner’s attendance of the Bilderberg conference to close out the week. 

Gary H. Johnson, Jr.  (7/23/09, 4:40amEST)

http://thecable.foreignpolicy.com

U.S. Embassy in Beijing “decapitated”
Thu, 05/14/2009 – 12:31pm
Citing the desire to spend more time with his wife, the chargé d’affaires of the U.S. embassy in Beijing, Dan Piccuta, has announced his retirement, a notice issued to embassy employees and obtained by The Cable says. As the most senior U.S. official currently serving in China, Piccuta’s departure will leave the embassy “decapitated” as of July 1, a U.S. official source said. “If the process for selecting an ambassador to Beijing wasn’t in high gear before, we better hope it is now,” the official said. The U.S. embassy in Beijing will also need a formal, actual deputy chief of mission. One possibility — that Bill Weinstein, who has been the effective DCM in Beijing for four months now, would be able to drop the “acting” title.

Ya Libnan 11 Day Roundup – 6/30/09

http://yalibnan.com/site/archives/2009/06/friday_news_bri_53.php
Friday News Briefs
Published: Friday, 19 June, 2009 @ 9:22 AM in Beirut
Beirut – The top story today in Lebanon is the meeting between Hezbollah Secretary General Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah and Democratic Gathering parliamentary bloc leader and head of the Progressive Socialist party ( PSP) MP. Walid Jumblatt. The meeting took place overnight according to PSP sources.

They discussed the past problems and specifically the May 2008 violence and both praised the efforts of Talal Arslan during and after that period .

They also discussed the future prospects for Lebanon and the region, and stressed the need to work together to move Lebanon and the region from the crisis state to the state of cooperation for the sake of the people of Lebanon.

They also confirmed to continue to work together towards full reconciliation, and agreed to continue communication and consultation during the next phase.

As Safir newspaper said Friday that the agenda of the talks included the stage that followed the Doha agreement and the challenges that emerged after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s latest speech.

According to As Safir, the two officials were also to discuss prospects of dialogue between Jumblatt and Damascus, in addition to relations between Hezbollah and the Progressive Socialist Party.

The location of the meeting will of course remain a top secret since Nasrallah has been hiding ever since the 2006 war begun

Losing the Buck

Since Obama took office, his policy of “Engagement” with the Muslim world has leaned toward the brink of submission through an ever widening circle of  dhimmipolitik thinkers.  The reason for this is due to his perception of the “right” war.  In the Obama frame, Iraq was the wrong war to fight and the goal is to extract American troops from the effort.  The Democrat Mantra of “no occupation” is a kneejerk position guided by far left peaceniks – the same peaceniks who were marching in the streets during the first Gulf War, chanting “No blood for Oil”.  Indeed, whenever the Iraq situation is brought up, one can’t help but note that for the entirety of the second Bush term the left wing of America and Europe published articles featuring the word “Occupation”, knowing that the Muslim World perceives any infidel presence in their lands as a crime against Allah if that infidel is not in complete submission to the aims and purposes of the Islamic Leadership.  Iraq may not have been the right war; however, it is instructive to consider the Obama line on the war being the “wrong war” in this “submission” based position.  Why is the Afghanistan campaign considered the “right” war to our young President?  It deserves analysis and consideration on the surface; however, the perception’s actual manifestations have ended in the new Iranian pickle. 

Ya Libnan 12 day Roundup – 6/18/09

http://yalibnan.com/site/archives/2009/06/sunday_news_bri_51.php
Sunday News Briefs – Elections 2009
Published: Sunday, 7 June, 2009 @ 8:03 AM in Beirut
Beirut: Sunday June 7, 2009 election will determine the future of Lebanon and the pressure will be mainly on the divided Christians communities to decide what kind of Lebanon they really want. There is a huge concern that Lebanon could lose its identity if the Iranian and Syrian backed March 8 wins the election.

The irony of this election is that several of the present candidates had their immediate relatives reportedly killed by the Syrians who are the closest allies of the March 8 Hezbollah-led coalition:

Nadim Gemayel’s father, former president Bashir Gemayel was assassinated on Sept. 14, 1982

Sami Gemayel’s brother Pierre, who was Lebanon’s industry minister was assassinated on November 21, 2006 . Sami is Nadim’s cousin

Michel Mouawad’s father former president Rene Mouawad was assassinated on November 22, 1989

Nayla Tueni’s father former MP and al Nahar chief Gebran Tueni was assassinated on December 12, 2005

Walid Jumblatt’s father, Kamal Jumblatt , founder of the Progressive Socialist Party was assassinated on March 16, 1977

Saad Hariri’s father , Rafik Hariri , former Prime Minister of Lebanon was assassinated on February 14, 2005

Lebanon’s Maronite Patriarch Nasrallah Butros Sfeir sounded an alarm Sunday when he said ” Lebanon is facing a threat to entity and Arab identity”.

He called on all Lebanese to pay attention to such dangers and to “adopt courageous stances that would further establish our Lebanese identity and maintain Lebanon as a free country filled with moral virtues, full sovereignty and achieved independence.” He added : “We must work hard on thwarting all attempts that if successful could change the face of Lebanon.”

Sfeir is aware of the danger that even though the Christians are no longer the majority, the fact they are divided will decide who will win or lose the election and he doesn’t want the Christians to be blamed for handing out the country to the Iranians.

The question is: Will the Christians listen to Sfeir , their spiritual leader who has been called the “conscious of Lebanon”

Or will they listen to General Aoun who has aligned himself with the Iranian and Syrian- backed Hezbollah group with the hope of becoming the next president when he is 80 ? Aoun himself was defeated by the Syrian army in October 1990 and forced into exile. Aoun returned to Lebanon after the Cedar revolution led by March 14 alliance forced Syria out of Lebanon.

There is a huge concern that a Hezbollah victory could spell the end of the Lebanese identity and could turn Lebanon into another Gaza

The other big concern is that Hezbollah , who has been calling for a regime change could turn Lebanon into a Welayat-el Faqih (guardianship of the Islamic Jurists) type state similar to Iran and in such a case Lebanon will completely lose its identity.

When the Lebanese wake up on Monday they will be able to figure out what kind of face Lebanon will have and at that point it will be too late to change their mind. The time to decide the future is now!!!

Ya Libnan 2 Week Roundup – 6/6/09

http://yalibnan.com/site/archives/2009/05/saturday_news_b_44.php

Saturday News Briefs
Published: Saturday, 23 May, 2009 @ 7:30 PM in Beirut
Beirut- Speaker Nabih Berri delivered an election campaign speech full of promises today in Baalbeck and tried to present the opposition as a moderate force that only wants the best for Lebanon. In his speech he insisted that the opposition is not power hungry and wants if successful in the upcoming elections to form a national unity government

Berri tried to reassure March 14 supporters and all the Lebanese people that the arms of the resistance will only be used against the Israeli enemy. But Berri did not explain how he can make such a promise, since the arms are not his and are in Hezbollah’s full control. Hezbollah after all used its arms when it occupied West Beirut on May 7, 2008 and its attacks against the Druze strongholds in Mt Lebanon.

Berri also said ” In the name of the opposition, without exception, we want the state, we want the Lebanese state but we don’t want power. We want the full implementation of the Taef accord. We want the court and the truth. We want to know who attempted to kill Lebanon with Hariri’s murder.
But according to observers the opposition always fought the Hariri tribunal and always criticized the Taef accord and always undermined the state. The mass resignation of all the Hezbollah and Amal ministers and the occupation of downtown Beirut are a clear example of undermining the state.