Ya Libnan – 4 Week Roundup – 9/23/09

http://yalibnan.com/site/archives/2009/08/wednesday_news_61.php

Wednesday News Briefs & Editorial
Published: Wednesday, 26 August, 2009 @ 12:04 PM in Beirut

Beirut – The Syrian regime of Bashar al Assad is back in action in Lebanon and is doing all it can to disrupt the formation of the cabinet through its allies the Hezbollah -led opposition. According to Syrian observers Syria is trying to make up for the loss of its allies in the polls by forcing on Lebanon’s majority the so called “ national Unity government “ in which the opposition will have the lion’s share of ministries through which they can control the country.

An Nahar political sources have reported that careful reading of the Syrian political stance towards Lebanon indicates that never before has an Arab country through its official media demanded that another Arab country should amend its constitution during the formation of a government .

An Nahar sources have also reported that Syria is allocating specific roles to its allies aimed at obstructing the formation of the cabinet unless their demands are met . While General Michel Aoun is charged with attacking the Prime minister designate and making impossible demands, Lebanon’s top Shiite cleric Grand Ayatollah Mohammed Hussein Fadlallah is charged with attacking Patriarch Nasrallah Boutros Sfeir who has been the most outspoken Christian spiritual leader against the obstruction of the Lebanese democratic institutions .

Yesterday Fadlallah slammed Maronite Patriarch Nasrallah Sfeir over calling for a cabinet based on the outcome of the parliamentary polls. In a remark aimed at changing the constitution Fadlallah said : “We call for a popular majority and popular referendum … so that people would have their say.”

FP 2009 Update – Week 30 – The Cable

Week 30 at The Cable was wild.  Hillary Clinton and Tim Geithner start off out the shoot on the U.S.-China Economic future in what can be considered an unprecedented Wall Street Journal oped piece focusing on bilateral relations and a new strategy forward in a multipronged approach to stabilizing world markets, with three main areas of concern for dialogue: maintaining economic relations, climate change issues, and complementary security issues.   Secretary Clinton then hits Meet the Press to discuss the North Korea slight on her person and she discusses Iran and Afghanistan frankly…not two days later Secretary Clinton hit Thailand and raised the possibility of a “nuclear umbrella” for the Sunni World to defend against a nuclear Iran, which led Israelis to worry over whether the U.S. was conceding the nuclear weapons issue to the Iranian Establishment.   Gates heads to Israel to let everyone in the world know that the military option remains on the table on the Iranian Nuclear issue, to do top-brass damage control for Mitchell’s focus on halting Israeli settlements to achieve a two-state solution.  More or less, Gates’ announcement made clear that Iran’s window for establishing diplomatic talks with the United States is shrinking and has time limits.  Secretary Clinton’s team announces its Africa trip starting on the 5th of August, designed to increase trade relations; while the nominees for Latin American Ambassadorships, Valenzuela and Shannon are pushed through to the Senate.  Obama’s meeting with the progressive American Jewish groups like J Street, whose anti-Zionist focus has led them to announce that three quarters of American Jews favor a two-state solution for the future of a Palestinian resolution.   Judah Grunstein of WPR notes the engagement policy espoused by Clinton on Iran seeks an Iran who respects its “right to nuclear energy” but not a nuclear bomb, and Trita Parsi makes the case for a diplomatic pause with the Iranian regime out of a “wait and see” attitude over the Iranian Islamic Establishment’s resolution of its opposition anger boiling over onto its streets since the June 12th election results.    By far, the highlight of Week 30 at Laura Rozen’s Foreign Policy blog is found in the activity of Holbrooke and McChrystal in the AfPak theatre.  Holbrooke, who is in charge of the AfPak at the Obama Administration,  announces that he is tearing up the Bush policy of poppy eradication in the AfPak.  It was important to note that David Miliband, the Foreign Secretary for Britain, made the D.C. rounds and discussed the upcoming elections in Afghanistan in a State Department speakeasy with Hillary Clinton.   And McChrystal, who just assumed overall command in early June, discussed the US strategy to win the hearts and minds of the Afghani people, with a new focus on protecting civilians from harm, which is being put together in a Strategic Assessment group.  Laura Rozen immediately pounces and names the team of McChrystal’s advisors, which of course includes blogger Andrew Exum, who just happens to be a fellow over at the Center for New American Security (CNAS).   Holbrooke follows up his D.C. rounds with a Fort McNair policy shuffle for top insiders.   The week ends with more controversy on the settlement issue as the international community is angered by Israel’s eviction of 56 Palestinians from their East Jerusalem homes in preparation for demolition to increase settlement construction.

-Gary H. Johnson, Jr. (8/4/09, 8:57pmEST)

http://thecable.foreignpolicy.com

U.S.-China dialogue gets underway
Mon, 07/27/2009 – 12:05am
Tomorrow kicks off the first meeting of the U.S. China Strategic and Economic Dialogue, the Obama administration’s twist on a process started under former Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson. That process, known as the Strategic Economic Dialogue (no “and”), was primarily intended to address bilateral economic issues such as the dollar-renminbi exchange rate.

The two countries — which have become known as the “G-2″ in foreign-policy circles due to their preeminent size and geopolitical reach — will still be tackling economic issues like the global financial crisis. But this time, a State Department official tells Foreign Policy, the agenda is “much broader and more comprehensive,” encompassing global issues such as climate change, and regional ones such as North Korea, Afghanistan, and Pakistan.

Two top-ranking Chinese officials, Vice Premier Wang Qishan and State Councilor Dai Bingguo, will be in Washington for meetings Monday and Tuesday with Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, who has just returned from meetings in India and Thailand.

Fp 2009 Update – Week 24 – The Cable

There is nothing light and easy about Week 24.  Iran went up in a frenzy of tweets and reporter arrests and hundreds of thousands of people marching on the streets for the right to an “election” rather than a “selection” process in the face of the Iranian Islamic Establishment.  It took Obama 10 days of riots and street beatings and killings and arrests to publicly come out and condemn the atrocities committed by Iran – the entire time, he was cautioning the Iranian Islamic Republic that the world was watching while sticking to his diplomacy engagement guns, leading certain reporters to believe that Obama was on the side of the Islamic Regime and Ahmadinejad.   The week started with Lieberman (of Israel) visited Washington.  Lieberman is a right wing Israeli with a penchant for saying exactly what is on his mind – a controversial leader of a partner that helped to solidify Netanyahu’s Prime Minister position, he made the D.C. rounds.  Mitchell stole much of the thunder of Lieberman’s visit with Secretary Clinton, since he returned from his 4th Jerusalem Shuttle and plans to meet with the Democrat Leadership of the House and Senate to discuss the Israeli-Arab peace possibilities.   The Ayatollah Khameini’s Friday speech left no one with any delusions about whether or not the election would stand, and Gary Sick’s commentary on the matter is well articulated.  Dennis Ross’ shift to the National Security Council is ruffling feathers across the board as he hops to the head of the line.  The Realist school, led by Mitchell over the Levant Theatre, is now face to face with the New Realist school of Ross in the Central Region – the differences are profound for those who have read the Ross/Markovsky new release, “Myths, Illusions, & Peace” – and Mitchell understands that he is in a competition of theory at the highest diplomatic level.  John Kyl tries to throw a monkey into the wrench of the State Department nominees over Obama’s idealism on the Nuclear disarmament/Russia front.  Barzun & Kaplan, huge Obama investors and advisors, cash in their support chips as slots in the Ambassador realm along with 5 career FSOs.  And as Tehran heats up with opposition members, a New York Times journalist escapes his Taliban kidnappers in Afghanistan after 7 months of captivity in which the NYT conveniently kept silent about the situation for the most part.  Robin Wright speaks eloquently in a Times article about the Iranian situation and the symbol of the opposition, Neda.  Hillary Clinton officially brings in Blumenthal under her wing and the United States officially opens diplomatic ties with Syria, by returning an Ambassador to Damascus after a 4 year spat.  Laura Rozen is at her best this week.   The Cable is, bar none, the best barometer for the pressures in the Washington D.C. scene that I have found.

Gary H. Johnson, Jr. (7/26/09 2:20pmEST)

http://thecable.foreignpolicy.com

Israeli FM Lieberman’s Washington meetings
Wed, 06/17/2009 – 10:43am
Israeli Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman, founder of the right wing Yisrael Beiteinyu party, has arrived in Washington and is scheduled to meet with his counterpart Secretary of State Hillary Clinton at 2pm this afternoon.

There is not a lot of publicity about his visit, no doubt because Lieberman is a controversial figure at home and abroad, who has said Israel’s Arab citizens should be required to sign loyalty oaths; numerous Israeli reports have indicated that Lieberman is the subject of an on-going corruption investigation.

Among his other planned Washington meetings, according to the Israeli Foreign Minister’s bureau: National Security Advisor General James L. Jones, the chairmen of the Senate and House Foreign Affairs Committees, Sen. John Kerry (D-MA) and Rep. Howard Berman (D-CA), the chairman of the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee Sen. Joe Lieberman, House Minority Whip Rep. Eric Cantor (R-VA), Senate Minority Whip Sen. Jon Kyl (R-AZ) and unspecified other officials.  Lieberman also plans to visit the U.S. Holocaust Museum where a gunman killed a security guard last week, the bureau release said.

FP 2009 Update – Week 21 – The Cable

Week 21 at Laura Rozen’s The Cable was instructive in many ways…  Carl Levin holds up a key Middle East Diplomat’s nomination confirmation to bring light on an age old Libya reparations battle.   Egyptian and Palestinian leadership descend on DC.   Saudi Arabia is added to Obama’s stopover list for his overseas jaunt which is designed to continue building international G-20 support and Muslim Accomodation.  Paul Farmer’s name is added to the list of possible heads for USAID – his 20 year history of making water out of wine in the poverty laden world medical community is unmatched.   Netanyahu pragmatically offers a settlement freeze in exchange for unconditional support on Iranian issue – beyond that, his response was basically “What the Hell does Obama want from me?”   Saudi Arabia puts a leash on Western journalists following Obama’s trail.  Israeeli Foreign Minister Barak has an impromptu 15 minute meeting with Barack Obama, who drops in on his meeting with Gen. Jim Jones.  Sarkozy begins overtures and direct engagement with Iran as a lead up to Obama’s travel plans.

Gary H. Johnson, Jr. (2:57amEST)

http://thecable.foreignpolicy.com

Libya claim delays Feltman confirmation vote
Tue, 05/26/2009 – 3:18pm
A compensation claim regarding Libya appears to be delaying the confirmation vote of Jeffrey Feltman to become assistant secretary of state for Near Eastern affairs, The Cable has learned.

Feltman’s nomination was forwarded by the Senate Foreign Relations Committee to the full Senate last week. But last Friday, before they broke for Memorial Day, Sen. Carl Levin (D-MI), usually a reliable Obama White House ally, put a hold delaying a Senate vote on the nomination until after the week-long recess, apparently at the request of an unidentified constituent with an unspecified, Libya-related claim. The case does not have to do with the 1988 bombing of Pan Am flight 103 over Lockerbie Scotland, but officials would not specify what it was regarding.

Ya Libnan – 2 Week Update – 7/22/09

http://yalibnan.com/site/archives/2009/07/wednesday_news_54.php
Wednesday News Briefs & Editorial
Published: Wednesday, 8 July, 2009 @ 10:08 AM in Beirut
Beirut- Despite UN Security Council resolution 1701 that halted the 2006 war between Israel and Hezbollah, the Israeli spy agency Mossad has been focusing on Lebanon ever since . A Lebanese army colonel suspected of spying for Israel fled to the Jewish state last week and two other Lebanese army colonels have been detained between May and June on charges of spying for Israel.

The army colonel that fled was identified as D.J. and two the other detained Lebanese army colonels were identified as Mansour Diab and Shahid Toumiyeh.

The probe into spying for Israel that has led to more than 50 arrests so far and 20 of those detained have been formally charged.

Lebanon has described the arrests as a major blow to Israel’s intelligence-gathering

Lebanon has formally complained to the United Nations about its findings, accusing Israel of breaching UNSCR 1701 and U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon said Tuesday that he was concerned at the Lebanese allegations of spying.

“The allegations, if proved, could endanger the fragile cessation of hostilities that exists between Israel and Lebanon,” Ban said in his report .

Hezbollah, which is the primary target of the Israeli spying activity has called for the execution of those convicted. Apparently one of the suspects was involved in the 2004 assassination of Hezbollah commander Ghalib Awali, security officials have said. Awali was killed by a bomb in the southern suburbs of Beirut.

According to Johnny Haddad, a military analyst , “Hezbollah, which is backed by Iran and Syria has been for years intimidating and demoralizing the Lebanese army and this has helped Israel in recruiting army members for its spying activity.”

This is of course no excuses for spying for an aggressive, expansionist and vicious enemy like Israel , but that is what happens when an army finds itself intimidated by a militant group within its own borders and whose objectives may not be in Lebanon’s best interests. Hezbollah, which claims to be a resistance force with the sole objective of liberating occupied Lebanese land and defending the Lebanese territories has used during the past 3 years its weapons against the Lebanese citizens: May 7 2008 occupation of west Beirut and the unsuccessful attempt to occupy mount Lebanon are witnesses to Hezbollah’s use of its arms against the citizens of this country.

FP 2009 Update – Week 20 – The Cable

Laura Rozen’s blog The Cable, during Week 20, focused on Joe Biden’s upcoming trip to Lebanon, which was designed to show good faith in the Lebanese upcoming democratic elections, the Obama Power Players, the North Korea Nuclear Test, names, names, and more names.   The focus on Israel’s closing down of a decades old organization whose function was to generate public concern over the Iranian threat signalled a shift in the methods and focus of the Netanyahu administration.    All in all, a short week for the Foreign Policy blog.  By far and away, the best link was to the Jerusalem Post, showing Senator Kerry enunciating the U.S. position that regime change in Iran is not being considered.

Gary H. Johnson, Jr. (7/23/09, 5:30amEST)

http://the cable.foreignpolicy.com

Names: State, DoD
Tue, 05/19/2009 – 11:31am
Bathsheba Crocker is the new chief of staff for Deputy Secretary of State James Steinberg. Crocker, a former CSIS fellow and expert on post conflict reconstruction, previously worked for Steinberg as his executive assistant when Steinberg was the deputy national security advisor during the Clinton administration. She also previously served as the deputy chief of staff to the U.N.’s new special envoy for tsunami recovery, Bill Clinton.

Marcel Lettre has left his position as national security advisor to Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid to move over to the OSD policy shop, where he is the new principal director for weapons of mass destruction. Lettre is reporting to Michael Nacht, the assistant secretary of defense for global strategic affairs.

Robin Roizman, a former professional staff member on the House Foreign Affairs Committee who focused on foreign aid reform, has moved over to the State Department’s congressional relations shop, where she is handling global issues (foreign assistance, human rights, refugees, climate change). Mark de la Iglesia, a long-time staffer to Rep. Adam Smith, is the new director for House legislative affairs, reporting to David Adams, the DAS for House legislative affairs. (Update: Roizman’s portfolio has been corrected.)

 

Is Biden going to Lebanon?
Wed, 05/20/2009 – 3:00pm
Joseph Biden’s office won’t confirm or deny widespread reports in the Lebanese and foreign press that the U.S. vice president plans to make an unannounced visit to Lebanon on Friday, in advance of that country’s June 7 elections.

FP 2009 Update – Week 19 – The Cable

Laura Rozen’s blog, The Cable, over at Foreign Policy Magazine, is by far and away the most informative blog on the in crowd of Washington D.C.  Week 19 witnessed Jon Huntsman taking off from Utah to tilt with the Chinese, the NIC chairman will be Kojm (worked with Lee Hamilton – Iraq Study Group), Matt Burrows, the Fatalist, will remain as the NIC No.3.  Obama’s July plans are released, planning to hit Italy, Russia, and Ghana as the Lebanese elections unfold.  The most important element of Rozen’s blog during Week 19 was the meeting that took place between Netanyahu and Obama.  Their meeting was constructive, but they locked horns on multiple issues, the Q&A segment seems to find two guys that speak the same language but don’t understand one another, except on one concept – linkage.  There is no link between the Israeli-Palestinian Peace and the Israeli-Arab Relations – Obama has been well versed in Dennis Ross’ diplomatic theory on this matter.  In a way, Week 19 began and ended with the Bilderberg Conference, considering Yost, a former Bilderberg Secretary General was tapped to direct the Long Range Analysis unit of the NIC to start the week, and questions loomed over Treasury Secretary Geithner’s attendance of the Bilderberg conference to close out the week. 

Gary H. Johnson, Jr.  (7/23/09, 4:40amEST)

http://thecable.foreignpolicy.com

U.S. Embassy in Beijing “decapitated”
Thu, 05/14/2009 – 12:31pm
Citing the desire to spend more time with his wife, the chargé d’affaires of the U.S. embassy in Beijing, Dan Piccuta, has announced his retirement, a notice issued to embassy employees and obtained by The Cable says. As the most senior U.S. official currently serving in China, Piccuta’s departure will leave the embassy “decapitated” as of July 1, a U.S. official source said. “If the process for selecting an ambassador to Beijing wasn’t in high gear before, we better hope it is now,” the official said. The U.S. embassy in Beijing will also need a formal, actual deputy chief of mission. One possibility — that Bill Weinstein, who has been the effective DCM in Beijing for four months now, would be able to drop the “acting” title.

Ya Libnan 11 Day Roundup – 6/30/09

http://yalibnan.com/site/archives/2009/06/friday_news_bri_53.php
Friday News Briefs
Published: Friday, 19 June, 2009 @ 9:22 AM in Beirut
Beirut – The top story today in Lebanon is the meeting between Hezbollah Secretary General Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah and Democratic Gathering parliamentary bloc leader and head of the Progressive Socialist party ( PSP) MP. Walid Jumblatt. The meeting took place overnight according to PSP sources.

They discussed the past problems and specifically the May 2008 violence and both praised the efforts of Talal Arslan during and after that period .

They also discussed the future prospects for Lebanon and the region, and stressed the need to work together to move Lebanon and the region from the crisis state to the state of cooperation for the sake of the people of Lebanon.

They also confirmed to continue to work together towards full reconciliation, and agreed to continue communication and consultation during the next phase.

As Safir newspaper said Friday that the agenda of the talks included the stage that followed the Doha agreement and the challenges that emerged after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s latest speech.

According to As Safir, the two officials were also to discuss prospects of dialogue between Jumblatt and Damascus, in addition to relations between Hezbollah and the Progressive Socialist Party.

The location of the meeting will of course remain a top secret since Nasrallah has been hiding ever since the 2006 war begun

NYT Misses the Barn on Khameini Speech

In his Friday Sermon, the Ayatollah Khameini probably used the word “Establishment” 200 times.  Did the New York Times catch on?  Nope.   Ayatollah Khameini’s Friday Prayer of 6/19/09 was probably his most watched speech, worldwide, since his ascension to the role of Guardian of the Jurist.   The Ayatollah constantly referred to his regime as the “Islamic Establishment” while solidifying his support of the “landslide” of Ahmadinejad’s victory and taking the opportunity to indirectly threaten Moussavi’s protesting supporters with bloodshed if they continue their agitations.  Khameini noted that all 4 presidential candidates were from within the Islamic Establishment, and went on to chide Western and Zionist attempts to frame the flap on Tehran’s streets as a fight between the Mullocracy and “outside forces” as a ludicrous stab.  Whatsmore – He is right!  The idea that Moussavi is a reformer is absurd, considering that when interviewed by Western reporters Moussavi claimed that he would not end the Iranian drive to Nuclear Power if he were elected.  The concept of Democracy and Dictatorship as on the table, in what Walid Phares has referred to as the Iranian “show”, according to Western idealists and even many of the youth agitating and aligning themselves against the current regime in the strikingly silent street marches which have already led to death and bloodshed on a small scale, is a false premise.  Western thinkers are comparing the situation on today’s Persian Streets to that faced by Reagan in which he sided with the Polish Street against the tyranny of its leadership decades ago.  This false comparison is striking.  Fox News’ conservo-catholics and pluralist advocates in the West like Ralph Peters are serving up President Obama’s silence on the issue as a tacit complicity and acceptance of Tyranny.   Sadly, the Western Pundits are far out of their depths in their reaction to the Iranian election and in their positions of solidarity with the anti-Ahmadenijad alliance.  In all reality, hope has clouded the minds of Reason in the West, who are observing the ruccus and grasping at any perceived signs of revolutionary regime shift in the despotic police state.   A letter from a Ministry within the Islamic Establishment that recently surfaced and claimed that Ahmadinejad came in 3rd in the election was waved off by the State Department as “too good to be true” as it began to focus on Twitter.com as an outlet for the cyber-guerillas itching for a world without Ahmadinejad.  The fact that journalists were rounded up and jailed in some quarters while free press visas were not renewed in others and landlines were blocked and the media was sidelined immediately placed the Western Journalistic world in a frame of reference to the 20th anniversary of Tiananmen Square, when considering the appearance of revolutionary student resolve in the streets of Tehran. 

The ironic thing about the Khameini speech; however, when considering these votaries of Chinese exemplars of a closed system, is the Ayatollah’s constant use of the word “Establishment” to refer to the Islamic government of the Wilayat al Faqih.  The Western refusal to accept that Democracy played no part in this “Vote” which may or may not have expressed “the will of the people” is the ultimate in delusion.  A similar irony exists in the June 7th parliamentary elections in Lebanon in which the Western and Arab worlds dodged the bullet of Hezbollah taking a majority akin to the “democratic” victory of Hamas in Gaza back in 2006.   In neither case was democracy in play.  In Lebanon, the current confessional system of “democracy” focuses the vote on a system structured around the politicization of Religious entitlement in which party lines and alliances are drawn on Religious affiliation.  In Iran, the Ayatollah handpicked the contenders for the office of the President.  In neither case did the will of the people factor into the final equation.  In Lebanon, the majority of the people are Shia, and the triumph of the March 14 “Arab” Alliance over the encroachment of the March 8 opposition forces of the Shia-Syrian-Iranian coalition was a case of bated breath in a land in which the last census took place 77 years ago.  What would the US federalist districts and representative realities look like if the US had not taken a Census since the Great Depression?  What opportunity did Iranians outside of the Religious Establishment of the Shia paradigm have in running for the office of the Presidency?  Zero!  So, in retrospect, both the Lebanese and Iranian models of the election system are frought with the Establishment of Religion as the guiding light of the consent of the governed. 

It is striking that the United States republic of individual liberty has, in its Constitution, an “Establishment Clause” which does not allow for Religious affiliation to influence the reins of Power at the legal level as a defense against the Tyranny of dogmatic justice creeds such as Shariah Law; yet, no Western intellectuals have deemed it worth while to note that the Iranian Religious Leader’s Friday rallying call against the protestors focused on the “Islamic Establishment” as the legal framework for the consent of the governed in the Persian power.   In all reality, the Western Intellectual world is so drunk with the ideals of equality, pluralism and democracy to the point that the best and brightest are no longer able to differentiate the writ of Democracy and Populist balderdash.   

Laughably, the situation in both Lebanon and Iran is akin to the staggering and drunk, broken down Lee Marvin, literally falling off the wagon and drawing down on and almost impossibly missing the barn in the Western classic “Cat Ballou”.  The idealized dime store novel depictions of Kid Shaleen didn’t muster with the real thing at first blush in the romantic depiction of a gun slinger in the street. 

Democracy, drunk with the Establishment of Religion, misses the barn of individual liberty every time.  The straight shot of Justice in the world of democratic elections and political power has nothing to do with Religious Righteousness; to base the consent of the governed on the Islamic Establishment in the Middle East is an exercise in justifying religious populism.  The tyranny of Allah, the tyranny of Hezbollah, the tyranny of the Muslim Brotherhood, and the tyranny of kings and dictators in the Muslim World do not provide any measure of justice; rather, they guarantee the imposition of Shariah Law and the rise of extremist fringe elements, supremacist mass murderers and the slavery of women.   Life, liberty, happiness, property, and justice do not, cannot, and will never, reasonably exist in the Middle East so long as the constitutions of the Arabic, Persian, and Muslim majority nations do not harbor the same establishment clause found in the US Constitution as a check on the Tyranny of Shariah Law…as a proclamation of Religious and Political Freedom.  In any governance beyond the mosque anywhere in the world, the Islamic Establishment of economic and ethical power is based on the collective rights of the Umma as the source of Justice – the possibilities of reason, innovation, and individual liberty as the hallmarks of power were destroyed 1100 years ago when the gates of ijtihad closed.  Justice is a house built upon individual liberty.  Justification is a house built upon the will of the collective.   Until this reality is recognized, democracy advocates will drunkenly miss the barn.

Gary H. Johnson, Jr. (6/19/09, 4:20pmEST)

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/20/world/middleeast/20iran.html?ref=middleeast

Iran’s Ruling Cleric Warns of Bloodshed if Protests Persist
By NAZILA FATHI and ALAN COWELL
Published: June 19, 2009

Ya Libnan 12 day Roundup – 6/18/09

http://yalibnan.com/site/archives/2009/06/sunday_news_bri_51.php
Sunday News Briefs – Elections 2009
Published: Sunday, 7 June, 2009 @ 8:03 AM in Beirut
Beirut: Sunday June 7, 2009 election will determine the future of Lebanon and the pressure will be mainly on the divided Christians communities to decide what kind of Lebanon they really want. There is a huge concern that Lebanon could lose its identity if the Iranian and Syrian backed March 8 wins the election.

The irony of this election is that several of the present candidates had their immediate relatives reportedly killed by the Syrians who are the closest allies of the March 8 Hezbollah-led coalition:

Nadim Gemayel’s father, former president Bashir Gemayel was assassinated on Sept. 14, 1982

Sami Gemayel’s brother Pierre, who was Lebanon’s industry minister was assassinated on November 21, 2006 . Sami is Nadim’s cousin

Michel Mouawad’s father former president Rene Mouawad was assassinated on November 22, 1989

Nayla Tueni’s father former MP and al Nahar chief Gebran Tueni was assassinated on December 12, 2005

Walid Jumblatt’s father, Kamal Jumblatt , founder of the Progressive Socialist Party was assassinated on March 16, 1977

Saad Hariri’s father , Rafik Hariri , former Prime Minister of Lebanon was assassinated on February 14, 2005

Lebanon’s Maronite Patriarch Nasrallah Butros Sfeir sounded an alarm Sunday when he said ” Lebanon is facing a threat to entity and Arab identity”.

He called on all Lebanese to pay attention to such dangers and to “adopt courageous stances that would further establish our Lebanese identity and maintain Lebanon as a free country filled with moral virtues, full sovereignty and achieved independence.” He added : “We must work hard on thwarting all attempts that if successful could change the face of Lebanon.”

Sfeir is aware of the danger that even though the Christians are no longer the majority, the fact they are divided will decide who will win or lose the election and he doesn’t want the Christians to be blamed for handing out the country to the Iranians.

The question is: Will the Christians listen to Sfeir , their spiritual leader who has been called the “conscious of Lebanon”

Or will they listen to General Aoun who has aligned himself with the Iranian and Syrian- backed Hezbollah group with the hope of becoming the next president when he is 80 ? Aoun himself was defeated by the Syrian army in October 1990 and forced into exile. Aoun returned to Lebanon after the Cedar revolution led by March 14 alliance forced Syria out of Lebanon.

There is a huge concern that a Hezbollah victory could spell the end of the Lebanese identity and could turn Lebanon into another Gaza

The other big concern is that Hezbollah , who has been calling for a regime change could turn Lebanon into a Welayat-el Faqih (guardianship of the Islamic Jurists) type state similar to Iran and in such a case Lebanon will completely lose its identity.

When the Lebanese wake up on Monday they will be able to figure out what kind of face Lebanon will have and at that point it will be too late to change their mind. The time to decide the future is now!!!