Fp 2009 Update – Week 24 – The Cable

There is nothing light and easy about Week 24.  Iran went up in a frenzy of tweets and reporter arrests and hundreds of thousands of people marching on the streets for the right to an “election” rather than a “selection” process in the face of the Iranian Islamic Establishment.  It took Obama 10 days of riots and street beatings and killings and arrests to publicly come out and condemn the atrocities committed by Iran – the entire time, he was cautioning the Iranian Islamic Republic that the world was watching while sticking to his diplomacy engagement guns, leading certain reporters to believe that Obama was on the side of the Islamic Regime and Ahmadinejad.   The week started with Lieberman (of Israel) visited Washington.  Lieberman is a right wing Israeli with a penchant for saying exactly what is on his mind – a controversial leader of a partner that helped to solidify Netanyahu’s Prime Minister position, he made the D.C. rounds.  Mitchell stole much of the thunder of Lieberman’s visit with Secretary Clinton, since he returned from his 4th Jerusalem Shuttle and plans to meet with the Democrat Leadership of the House and Senate to discuss the Israeli-Arab peace possibilities.   The Ayatollah Khameini’s Friday speech left no one with any delusions about whether or not the election would stand, and Gary Sick’s commentary on the matter is well articulated.  Dennis Ross’ shift to the National Security Council is ruffling feathers across the board as he hops to the head of the line.  The Realist school, led by Mitchell over the Levant Theatre, is now face to face with the New Realist school of Ross in the Central Region – the differences are profound for those who have read the Ross/Markovsky new release, “Myths, Illusions, & Peace” – and Mitchell understands that he is in a competition of theory at the highest diplomatic level.  John Kyl tries to throw a monkey into the wrench of the State Department nominees over Obama’s idealism on the Nuclear disarmament/Russia front.  Barzun & Kaplan, huge Obama investors and advisors, cash in their support chips as slots in the Ambassador realm along with 5 career FSOs.  And as Tehran heats up with opposition members, a New York Times journalist escapes his Taliban kidnappers in Afghanistan after 7 months of captivity in which the NYT conveniently kept silent about the situation for the most part.  Robin Wright speaks eloquently in a Times article about the Iranian situation and the symbol of the opposition, Neda.  Hillary Clinton officially brings in Blumenthal under her wing and the United States officially opens diplomatic ties with Syria, by returning an Ambassador to Damascus after a 4 year spat.  Laura Rozen is at her best this week.   The Cable is, bar none, the best barometer for the pressures in the Washington D.C. scene that I have found.

Gary H. Johnson, Jr. (7/26/09 2:20pmEST)

http://thecable.foreignpolicy.com

Israeli FM Lieberman’s Washington meetings
Wed, 06/17/2009 – 10:43am
Israeli Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman, founder of the right wing Yisrael Beiteinyu party, has arrived in Washington and is scheduled to meet with his counterpart Secretary of State Hillary Clinton at 2pm this afternoon.

There is not a lot of publicity about his visit, no doubt because Lieberman is a controversial figure at home and abroad, who has said Israel’s Arab citizens should be required to sign loyalty oaths; numerous Israeli reports have indicated that Lieberman is the subject of an on-going corruption investigation.

Among his other planned Washington meetings, according to the Israeli Foreign Minister’s bureau: National Security Advisor General James L. Jones, the chairmen of the Senate and House Foreign Affairs Committees, Sen. John Kerry (D-MA) and Rep. Howard Berman (D-CA), the chairman of the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee Sen. Joe Lieberman, House Minority Whip Rep. Eric Cantor (R-VA), Senate Minority Whip Sen. Jon Kyl (R-AZ) and unspecified other officials.  Lieberman also plans to visit the U.S. Holocaust Museum where a gunman killed a security guard last week, the bureau release said.

Ya Libnan 11 Day Roundup – 6/30/09

http://yalibnan.com/site/archives/2009/06/friday_news_bri_53.php
Friday News Briefs
Published: Friday, 19 June, 2009 @ 9:22 AM in Beirut
Beirut – The top story today in Lebanon is the meeting between Hezbollah Secretary General Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah and Democratic Gathering parliamentary bloc leader and head of the Progressive Socialist party ( PSP) MP. Walid Jumblatt. The meeting took place overnight according to PSP sources.

They discussed the past problems and specifically the May 2008 violence and both praised the efforts of Talal Arslan during and after that period .

They also discussed the future prospects for Lebanon and the region, and stressed the need to work together to move Lebanon and the region from the crisis state to the state of cooperation for the sake of the people of Lebanon.

They also confirmed to continue to work together towards full reconciliation, and agreed to continue communication and consultation during the next phase.

As Safir newspaper said Friday that the agenda of the talks included the stage that followed the Doha agreement and the challenges that emerged after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s latest speech.

According to As Safir, the two officials were also to discuss prospects of dialogue between Jumblatt and Damascus, in addition to relations between Hezbollah and the Progressive Socialist Party.

The location of the meeting will of course remain a top secret since Nasrallah has been hiding ever since the 2006 war begun

Where is Soroush?

The likelihood of Khameini losing power or influence or even the advancing of a progressive step toward a change in the sharing of power in the “Islamic Republic of Iran” as a result of the 2009 post-Presidential Election Protests is virtually nil.  Khameini, on the otherhand, has pushed forward a more likely scenario – the rise of a Shia Imamate to replace the Ottoman Caliphate that broke apart during World War I and then found its terminus after the Turks and Greeks battled it out – a trail of blood that led to Ataturk’s decision to abolish the caliphate in 1923. 

The decision of Khameini to writeoff the opposition’s demands for a new vote and his refusal to even offer a vote discrepancy investigation has led to a remarkable climax of Moussavi momentum, highlighted by electric prod and baton wielding uniformed and plainclothesed riot control troops cracking heads and jailing dissidents on behalf of the present administration of Ahmadinejad and the concerned echelons of the Mullocracy.  The confirmed deaths of 17 “Mousavi Martyrs” now have a symbolic face in the beautiful young Nada, while unconfirmed twitter reports are detailing the excesses of the Khameini’s police, including seemingly outlandish and inconceivable reports that the crowd control efforts had degraded to wildly wielded axes and the maiming of entire swaths of protestors, has literally silenced the Western Media.  The lack of confirmable, first hand sources and footage has shut out the Western Televised world. 

69 people die in a Market explosion in Iraq, yesterday, and it is not a highline feature on 24 hour news networks…80 Taliban soldiers die in Pakistan’s tribal region of South Waziristan due to US predator strikes…where is the focus of the Media?  On the news they can accurately cover…the South Carolina Governor’s indiscretions.  Domestic political corruption and people magazine styled filler plagues nightly newscasts alongside human interest and environmental think pieces.   

More than anything, what this Khameini choice of omission has achieved is the submission of Western Media.  More powerful than any propaganda could ever be, the blackout of Journalists and dissident voices from the intellectual sphere of Iranian thinkers is better, in the long run, than disinformation which will later be proven false due to the existence of leads for Westerners to trace and debunk.  No, Khameini has learned the omnipotent power of omission to silence public activism abroad…this he has learned from North Korea and China. 

To prove this point, where is Soroush?

In 2006, both Time and Foreign Policy magazines listed Abdul Karim Soroush as a notable top ten influential world thinker.  Listed as a dissident reformer by these publications, his history is intimately interwoven with the creation of the Islamic Establishment during the Khomeini Revolution.  After falling out with the Establishment of the Wilayat al Faqih in the first decade of the Revolution, Soroush’s theories of knowledge led him to reject, in principle, the infallibility of the clerical elite in their interpretation and application of Shariah Law and the dictates of Muhammad in the political sphere. 

As early as 1995 and 1996, commentators like Robin Wright were suggesting that Soroush may be the Martin Luther that Islam has been waiting for in the much opined reformation of Islam into a moderate force for democracy and peace.  It would seem that this influential Iranian intellectual should be in the mix on the streets and speakhards of Tehran beneath the green banners of this Moussavi counter-cultural Revolution if indeed the infallibility of the Ayatollah is to be questioned in full and in a manner that resounds with the crowds of opposition Moussavi supporters. 

So, where is Soroush?  Moreover, why is it important, moreso now than ever, that we, in the West, are updated to his whereabouts? 

Ya Libnan 2 Week Roundup – 6/6/09

http://yalibnan.com/site/archives/2009/05/saturday_news_b_44.php

Saturday News Briefs
Published: Saturday, 23 May, 2009 @ 7:30 PM in Beirut
Beirut- Speaker Nabih Berri delivered an election campaign speech full of promises today in Baalbeck and tried to present the opposition as a moderate force that only wants the best for Lebanon. In his speech he insisted that the opposition is not power hungry and wants if successful in the upcoming elections to form a national unity government

Berri tried to reassure March 14 supporters and all the Lebanese people that the arms of the resistance will only be used against the Israeli enemy. But Berri did not explain how he can make such a promise, since the arms are not his and are in Hezbollah’s full control. Hezbollah after all used its arms when it occupied West Beirut on May 7, 2008 and its attacks against the Druze strongholds in Mt Lebanon.

Berri also said ” In the name of the opposition, without exception, we want the state, we want the Lebanese state but we don’t want power. We want the full implementation of the Taef accord. We want the court and the truth. We want to know who attempted to kill Lebanon with Hariri’s murder.
But according to observers the opposition always fought the Hariri tribunal and always criticized the Taef accord and always undermined the state. The mass resignation of all the Hezbollah and Amal ministers and the occupation of downtown Beirut are a clear example of undermining the state.

FP 2009 Update – Week 16 – The Cable

Laura Rozen hammers Harman this week on The Cable.   It is obvious Harman was involved in a scandal; however, the only reason we know is because of the FISA wiretapping of a Senator’s phones.  This case demonstrates the fact that, since Obama decided to maintain the current policy on domestic wiretapping, any contact Republicans have with FBI surveiled “suspected” moles will be known publicly at politically heightened moments like elections and democrat faux pas.  For Harman to lawyer up is an indication that she is worried about a lawsuit for her lunge for political power.  The most interesting element of Rozen’s blog this week, to me, was the development of Lute’s expansion of “war czar” reach to the extents of the MENASA region.  No mention was made of the Brussels Somalia donor conference, which was disappointing, just as it was disappointing that the Tokyo conference was not fully covered by Rozen, considering billions are on the table.  The Democrat yoke seems to have the attitude, ”The Kerry-Lugar initiative to Pakistan is only 7.5 billion dollars over 5 years, what is that compared to 11 billion dollars for one month of US Occupation in Iraq…oh, a billion more for reconstruction and stability…what is that compared to the cost of US occupation?”   This mentality bleeds into the Western Media as stories are omitted based on fffinancial rather than strategic value.   Indeed, apparently it is not real money, in terms of National Media coverage, until it crosses the 11 billion dollar barrier.   It is disconcerting that the cost of war and the cost of stability are being measured in terms of the cost of US occupatio:  US occupation or invasion, ideally, has nothing to do with money and everything to do with principles, values, law and freedom.  To measure the use of US invasion or occupation forces on their financial cost rather than their strategic aim is a mistake that is noticeable only in terms of omission.  

Rozen covers Hillary Clinton’s 100 day mileage and then notes her landing in Iraq.  A dinner held in Saudi Arabia by Prince Turki al Faisal is going to draw a crowd from Washington.  No doubt, the Taliban are the issue on the table.  The Iranian-sponsored Shia-Taliban are apparently holding the Afghanistan Opium routes open all along the Helmand River valley.    The Balochistan Steppe of Pakistan to Afghanistan’s South and Iran’s East is the staging area for all parties to the storm.  The fact that Prince Faisal with Gul created the Taliban nightmare will no doubt be on the docket for discussion in the closed, smoky circles around hookas and other teas as Saudi Arabia helps to formulate a masterplan for the MENASA region, while attempting to secure the Pakistani Nukes from the backlash of the raising of 15 or so Frankenstein Monsters in the Deoband Wahhab Madrassas and ISI training grounds…a Talibani force that is less than a hundred miles from overtaking Islamabad.  With Ross heading to the region, from Egypt on the 28th to start indicates that messages from the Palestinian Front will be couriered to the Saudi Heads directly from Ross to Turki at a nice sit down meeting we will read about in books 5 or 6 years from now by aids and soon to be outed insiders.  The main question is whether or not economic issues will be discussed in this meeting or whether or not these discussions will be put on hold for the Fiscal Stability Board.   Since Ross is heading in and he is meeting with Prince Turki, the main issue will be containing and dismantling the threat of the Taliban while leaving the road open to Iran’s maintenance – you know, to make sure that the leadership of Iran get their black market money while curtailing and stabilizing the opium trade into manageable gangs. 

Gary H. Johnson, Jr. (4/29/09, 3:11pmEST)

The Parsi Rationale

The Parsi Rationale: The Lynchpin of US Engagement in the Middle East

by: Gary H. Johnson, Jr.

Dr. Trita Parsi, middle east expert and president of the NIAC, wrote his doctoral dissertation on foreign policy while studying at the Johns Hopkins’ School for Advanced International Studies under the likes of Francis Fukuyama and the Carter throwback, Brzezinski. The thesis of his dissertation was simple: throughout the modern era, the driving forces of the tensions between Israel and Iran have, historically, been primarily based on geopolitical realities in the region moreso than on the ideological dogmas of the states. In 2007, Dr. Parsi converted this groundbreaking analysis into a book entitled Treacherous Alliance: The Secret Dealings of Iran, Israel and the United States.

The beauty of the Parsi assessment of the Israeli/Iranian/US relations since the rise of the Khomeini revolution in 1979 is that it sounds pragmatic; when, in all reality, it is a radically new reading of a swathe of history that is not well understood in the West. Dr. Parsi begins the assessment by paying attention to the fact that Israel and Iran worked together behind the scenes in both the sixties and the seventies, into the eighties despite the calls of Jerusalem’s Liberation and Zionism’s destruction as the revolution met a groundswell of popular support in Iran.

FP 2009 Update – Week 14 – The Cable

Laura Rozen’s Foreign Policy blog this second week of April lent keen insights on the realities of the Obama Administration’s developing policy on Iranian Negotiations and six party talks, the possible rise of Harvard’s Nye guy to the top Chinese Ambassadorial slot, as well as the Feltman rise to the NEA head position and the possibilities of Mitchell’s deputies, including Frederick Hof, whose Syria-Israeli relations history may figure prominently in the coming schism between DC and Tel Aviv.  Obama’s supplemental request of $83.4 billion is touched on, but for some reason, no mention is made of Mitchell’s meeting with Netanyahu.

“Thomas Donilon appears to be taking Scowcroft’s advice to heart. A former assistant secretary of state for public affairs, Donilon has become almost entirely invisible to the outside world since assuming the No. 2 job in Obama’s National Security Council.”

A former CFR Senior Fellow, Michelle Gavin, becomes new NSC senior director for Africa.

Gary H. Johnson, Jr. (4/14/09, 6:51pmEST)

http://thecable.foreignpolicy.com

Burns to P5+1
Wed, 04/08/2009 – 12:26am
Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs William Burns will represent Washington at the meeting of the P5+1 in London tomorrow, spokesman Robert Wood said Tuesday.

“Bill Burns, our under secretary for political affairs, will represent us at this P-5+1 meeting, and it’s obviously to chart the way forward in terms of dealing with Iran’s nuclear program,” Wood said at a press conference Tuesday. “Hopefully, I can provide you a better readout after the meeting tomorrow.”

UPDATE: The NSC’s Puneet Talwar is in London with Burns for the meeting, The Cable hears.

UPDATE II: Ha’aretz/news wires report: “Six major powers said on Wednesday they would invite Iran for talks to seek a diplomatic solution to the dispute over its nuclear program. The United States, Russia, China, France, Germany and Britain said in a statement they would ask European Union foreign policy chief Javier Solana to invite Iran to a meeting ’so that together we may find a diplomatic solution to this critical issue.’” In a speech broadcast live on Iranian television Wednesday, the article further reports, Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said, “The Iranian nation welcomes a hand extended to it should it really and truly be based on honesty, justice and respect.” He also told the Iranian nation he had good news, and is expected to announce tomorrow Iran’s completion of the uranium enrichment cycle.

DoD Releases Iraq Stability Report – March 2009

2009 March Iraqi Progress Report – released March 31, 2009

“Several threat groups remain dangerous and require continued focus to prevent their resurgence.  The long term threat remains Iranian-sponsored Shi’a militant groups, Asa’ib Al-Haq (AAH), Ketaib Hezbollah (KH), and unaligned Shi’a extremists, including the newly-formed Promised Day Brigade.  In addition, violent Sunni insurgent groups and Al Qaeda in Iraq (AQI) are still a major security concern.” – p. iv

“With decreased Coalition support, Iraqi forces are beginning to take the lead in eliminating terrorist safe havens and reducing the flow of foreign fighters into Iraq.  Tactical successes in ongoing joint Coalition and ISF operations against AAH, KH, Special Groups (SG), and AQI in Baghdad, Diyala, Maysan, and Ninewa Provinces have demonstrated ISF’s slow, but steady improvement in their capability to combat extremists.” – p. v

http://www.defenselink.mil/pubs/pdfs/Measuring_Stability_and_Security_in_Iraq_March_2009.pdf

draft completed March 25, 2009

UNSCR 1790 – compliance updated.

Gary H. Johnson, Jr.

Lugar backs Christopher Hill for Iraq Ambassador

Senator Lugar, who is a RINO, working across the aisle with John Kerry on the Afghanistan Pakistan plan to provide funding to the Taliban and the Regional countries to the tune of 15 to 20 billion dollars.

Note – 12:06pmEST FOX just noted that an additional $2.8 billion is going to counterinsurgency efforts in Afghan/Pakistan theatre.

Regardless, Christopher Hill is to be confirmed today by the Senate or later in the year.  It will be telling to see how much pull Lugar has on the hill, considering Senator Brownback’s possible decision to enact a “Hold” on the nomination.  If you add Lugar to Graham and McCain, you have a milquetoast response of “Well, we really need a man on the job…even though there may be a better man for the job, Hill is a strong candidate.”  Senator Brownback may be our only hope to block this nominee from flubbing Iraq as throughly as he botched North Korea. 

-Gary H. Johnson, Jr. (3/31/09, 12:13pmEST)

http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5jJ1zqfVPlXbedUoX4hAoHCT6arxw

Iraq pick Hill faces Senate grilling
6 days ago

WASHINGTON (AFP) — Veteran US diplomat and North Korea point person Christopher Hill faces a Senate grilling Wednesday on his nomination to be ambassador to Iraq, as opposition to him taking the post seemed to wane.

One of his most vocal critics, Republican Senator Lindsey Graham, promised Tuesday he would not block the nomination, highlighting the need to fill the diplomatic vacancy at a critical time.

“There are better choices out there. But at the end of the day we need an ambassador and, you know, he has many talents,” said Graham, who stressed Hill had proven “very knowledgeable about Iraq” when they met last week.

Hill was to go before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee at 9:30 am (1330 GMT), bolstered by shows of support from top military commanders in the region and strong backing from the panel’s top two members.

The Evident Islamic Supremacy in Iraq’s Constitution

I have changed two words in the translated copy of the Iraqi Constitution crops below.  I have replaced the word God with Allah…when seen in this light, the document takes on a sinister tone…and I have made those changes [in brackets].  Shariah Law is now the law of the populist quasi-democracy of Iraq.  Note that the Preamble begins with the same introduction that precedes all but one or two suras of the Koran.  Note that Allah’s Rights over the people of Iraq is supreme.  Note that Article 2 states that Shariah Law is the law of the land.  Supremacy is evident in the maintenance of “religious rights” rather than human or individual rights.  Iraq’s constitution holds to the Arab League’s Covenant.  This covenant holds Israel’s existence as evidence of Zionist Aggression and holds to the Right of Return of the Palestinian Peoples. 

 

-Gary H. Johnson, Jr. (1/26/09, 6:27pm EST)

 

THE PREAMBLE

 

In the name of [Allah], the most merciful, the most compassionate

 

We have honored the sons of Adam

 

We are the people of the land between two rivers, the homeland of the apostles and prophets, abode of the virtuous imams, pioneers of civilization, crafters of writing and cradle of numeration. Upon our land the first law made by man was passed, the most ancient just pact for homelands policy was inscribed, and upon our soil, companions of the Prophet and saints prayed, philosophers and scientists theorized and writers and poets excelled.

 

Acknowledging [Allah's] right over us, and in fulfillment of the call of our homeland and citizens, and in response to the call of our religious and national leaderships and the determination of our great (religious) authorities and of our leaders and reformers, and in the midst of an international support from our friends and those who love us, marched for the first time in our history toward the ballot boxes by the millions…