AfPak Notes – Week 8 – 2009

http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2009/02/pakistan_wanted_terr.php#ixzz0JPCSikEM&D

Pakistan: Wanted terrorists Azhar, Ibrahim not in country
By Bill RoggioFebruary 19, 2009 11:39 AM
 
A wanted terrorist leader recently under house arrest and a mafia don with close ties to South Asian terror networks are not in Pakistan, according to a senior Pakistani official.

Maulana Masood Azhar, the leader of the Jaish-e-Mohammed, and South Asian crime boss Dawood Ibrahim are not in in the country, according to Rehman Malik, the Interior Advisor to Prime Minister Gilani. Malik made the comments at a meeting of the federal cabinet in Lahore, Geo News reported.

The claim that Azhar is not in Pakistan directly conflicts with claims made by Pakistani officials that he was under house arrest in Bahawalpur in early December 2008. Pakistani officials later claimed Azhar was not under house arrest and his location was unknown.

Rumors later cropped up that claimed Azhar was operating in South Waziristan. Rashid Rauf, an al Qaeda operative who is a member of Azhar’s family, is also thought to have fled to South Waziristan after his escape from custody. Rauf was reported to have been killed in a November 2008 US Predator strike in South Waziristan, but his associates claimed he is alive.

Ibrahim’s whereabouts are unknown, but he known to operate his criminal-terror empire in Pakistan’s southern port city of Karachi.

FP 2009 Update – Week 29 – The Cable

Week 29 at Laura Rozen’s Foreign Policy blog, The Cable, demonstrates the reality that pulling order out of chaos is a challenge when the situation is static, but a superhuman task when the chaos is multiplying.  While the last few weeks have been dominated by Hillary Clinton at the State Department, this week is dominated by the activities of the Special Envoys to the AfPak, the Central Region and the Levant – Holbrooke, Ross, and Mitchell.  The Obama decision to flex its muscles on the Settler situation in East Jerusalem is causing the Israeli counterparts to Mitchell and company to balk in more ways than one over the idea of peace.  A letter from the Bahraini Royal to the Washington Post made an impact on the idea of stability as the target and trade as the cure, which makes sense since the Kingdom of Bahrain is the center of the Shariah Compliant Finance and trade world.  The Saudi King has couched his reciprocal moves to Israel until it comes to a conclusion on the Palestinian issue, which throws a monkey wrench into Dennis Ross’ “Myths, Illusions & Peace” theory about the Palestinian linkage to Peace from the Arab perspective or at least sets the ground for the proof of Saudi Duplicity down the road.  The activity of Obama’s Envoys in this active engagement on the Middle East Peace and effort at curtailing of the Iranian Nuclear capability from the vantage of idealism is put into perspective when the issue of 7 letters to Middle Eastern Leaders from the Oval office surfaced, written months ago (early May).  The purpose of the Holbrooke mission and its break from India is still fuzzy apparently at the Foreign Policy desk, which makes no sense to me, since Holbrooke, if he is connected with any group, is connected to Foreign Policy Magazine.  Mubarak, who missed an earlier meeting with Obama, due to the death of a grandson, is heading to Washington from Egypt for a meeting on August 17th.  It looks as though the elections in Afghanistan will be butting up against Ramadan’s start…one can only wonder if the Ramadan holiday festivities will affect the vote count and participation levels.

Gary H. Johnson, Jr. (7/27/09, 1:39pmEST) 

http://thecable.foreignpolicy.com

Holbrooke heads to the subcontinent
Mon, 07/20/2009 – 12:31pm
U.S. Af-Pak envoy Richard Holbrooke has quietly headed to South Asia, where sources say he will be making a surreptitious stop in India following Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s meetings in that country. Holbrooke’s team wouldn’t confirm the planned travel or India visit when contacted Saturday (he also will visit Afghanistan, Pakistan and Brussels), and an administration official would only say the Holbrooke team would not overlap with Clinton, who is currently in New Delhi after three nights in Mumbai. But Holbrooke’s itinerary was confirmed Monday after it was learned he had already departed for travel in the region.

FP 2009 Update – Week 28 – The Cable

Like week 27, week 28 at the Cable is anchored by the activity of Hillary Clinton at the State Department.   The Week begins with Obama speaking to all of the major Jewish NGOs in America, presumably to listen to the differing viewpoints of Israel’s position and aims from these natural bridges to the Jewish identity.  Hillary Clinton’s speech on the 15th was by far and away the most important policy speech of her career.  She did not take it lying down and had a few headaches to voice, including the inability to place the top political head of USAID; but, more than anything, like Obama before his Cairo address, Clinton called for a sitdown meeting with everyone from Petraeus to Biden to make sure all of her ducks were in a row, and to tighten her message to crystal clarity.  The speech was impressive in that it laid out the difficulty in the process of running 50,000 people down a trail without a report indicating where the team stood on a quarterly basis.  More than anything, what Hillary Clinton hammered home was the need to fund the new Development and Diplomacy initiative, including the moneys necessary to expand and broaden its aims through and within NGOs and International Foundations, which includes hiring tons of civilian experts to place into the thick of battle in stability operation zones and then in reconstruction opportunity zones.   She had to hold the line with the Obama Cairo speech and discuss the difficulties in stopping nuclear weapons and terrorism while at the same time reaching out to the Muslim World.    Unexpectedly, Laura Rozen backtracks to take another look at the Obama Abdullah meet in Riyadh.  She immediately follows up the analysis of the situation with the immediate news of the day in the DC circles, the flareup of JI in the Jakarta bombings – apparently Obama placed a call of condolence and concern to Indonesia…  Included in this week is a direct link and copy of the Clinton Speech to the CFR.  It is worth throughly taking in, especially with Lauren’s links to the daily beast.  Also, ynet.com seems to figure in prominently in her Israeli research.  A few more names hit the Ambassador highway, but all in all, Week 28 was a week for the alignment of DC and satellite forces in the NGO world, an aim aided and bolstered by the very presence of Holbrooke at the Clinton Speech.  Holbrooke’s activities as the Special Envoy to the AfPak, will comingle and join with the Ross initiatives pursued in the region.  Apparently, Clinton’s punch at Iran on the issue of joining the international community as being an offer with a shrinking window, will no doubt figure in future Iranian rebukes of US arrogance and dictation of the terms of the engagement between the states.

Gary H. Johnson, Jr. (7/27/09, 3:25amEST)

http://thecable.foreignpolicy.com

Obama White House powwow with American Jewish groups
Mon, 07/13/2009 – 1:11pm
As part of the White House effort to reach out to faith based and community groups and sustain support for his policies, President Barack Obama meets with representatives of American Jewish groups at the White House this afternoon. Domestic issues — health care, SCOTUS nominee Sonia Sotomayor, and the economy — will be on the agenda, as well as Obama’s policies to the Middle East, Iran and on curbing settlements. “It will be an opportunity to make support for his Middle East policies even greater,” a representative of one group invited to attend said.

FP 2009 Update – Week 27 – The Cable

Laura Rozen’s first week back from her hiatus focused on the Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s developing initiative, known as the QDDR.   The Iran issue has refocused the world’s attention on the Middle East, and a report indicating that Saudi Arabia had virtually given Israel the green light for overflights in an attack on Iranian Nuclear sites had everyone, including Joe Biden and King Abdullah making clipped statements about the possibility of and advisability of an Israeli preemptive strike on post-election Iran.  The fact is, the Obama administration is closing in on a half year in office, and the posts and cabinets are not completely filled.  The Secretary of State’s shift away from American cameras has pushed her out of the public eye, but onto the international map.  Her QDDR initiative, the details of which are to be released or at least spoken of in Week 28 are providing a level of conjecture on the Hill to the purpose and scope of the development and diplomacy aims in revamping foreign assistance funding and programs.  Week 27 of the Cable closes with Uzi Arad on the scene in Israel – a Netanyahu insider and friend who is having problems with subtlety lately – moving to the London Ambassadorship.  The Uzi Arad controversies have peppered the Netanyahu administration with headaches on both the American and international media fronts.  Noticeably, Laura Rozen focuses on Harretz for her Israeli information that she is willing to post on her blog as links.  The Jerusalem Post and Arutz Sheva (A7 News) are also excellent sites for back up information on the Israeli innerworkings, foreign policy and political scene. 

Gary H. Johnson, Jr. (7/26/09. 3:55pmEST)

http://thecable.foreignpolicy.com

No change in Iran policy, White House insists
Mon, 07/06/2009 – 6:48pm
As White House and Office of the Vice President aides formed a united front against widespread media speculation about a change in policy signaled by Vice President Joseph Biden’s statement on a Sunday news show that Israel is a “sovereign nation” that could “determine for itself” how to deal with threats from Iran, analysts said that Israel may be wary of any such green light in any case.

FP 2009 Update – Week 25 – The Cable

Week 25 of the Cable was focused on the DC scene.  Harold Koh, an advocate for transnational laws, was confirmed as The Attorney for the State Department after Kyl’s hold was lifted – his record is impeccable, the problem is in the realm of sovereignty.  The Iran issue is still boiling, but the names of the confirmed and the nominees for various government ambassadorships and positions continues in a parade of think tank wonks and of course Sotomayer’s Chief Justice position is going to be under fire in July.     After a half year of consistently beating the press corps in bringing stories to print, Laura Rozen apparently took a well deserved week long vacation.  The next Laura Rozen update, then, will begin on July 6th (Week 27).

Gary H. Johnson, Jr. (7/26/09, 3:14pmEST)

http://thecable.foreignpolicy.com

Koh cloture vote passes (UPDATED)
Wed, 06/24/2009 – 9:02am
A cloture vote on the nomination of Harold Koh will be held this morning at 11 a.m. ET, The Cable has learned. Koh, the dean of Yale Law School, was tapped to become the State Department’s legal advisor nearly four months ago, but has faced criticism from conservatives for an alleged “transnational” approach to the law.

Fp 2009 Update – Week 24 – The Cable

There is nothing light and easy about Week 24.  Iran went up in a frenzy of tweets and reporter arrests and hundreds of thousands of people marching on the streets for the right to an “election” rather than a “selection” process in the face of the Iranian Islamic Establishment.  It took Obama 10 days of riots and street beatings and killings and arrests to publicly come out and condemn the atrocities committed by Iran – the entire time, he was cautioning the Iranian Islamic Republic that the world was watching while sticking to his diplomacy engagement guns, leading certain reporters to believe that Obama was on the side of the Islamic Regime and Ahmadinejad.   The week started with Lieberman (of Israel) visited Washington.  Lieberman is a right wing Israeli with a penchant for saying exactly what is on his mind – a controversial leader of a partner that helped to solidify Netanyahu’s Prime Minister position, he made the D.C. rounds.  Mitchell stole much of the thunder of Lieberman’s visit with Secretary Clinton, since he returned from his 4th Jerusalem Shuttle and plans to meet with the Democrat Leadership of the House and Senate to discuss the Israeli-Arab peace possibilities.   The Ayatollah Khameini’s Friday speech left no one with any delusions about whether or not the election would stand, and Gary Sick’s commentary on the matter is well articulated.  Dennis Ross’ shift to the National Security Council is ruffling feathers across the board as he hops to the head of the line.  The Realist school, led by Mitchell over the Levant Theatre, is now face to face with the New Realist school of Ross in the Central Region – the differences are profound for those who have read the Ross/Markovsky new release, “Myths, Illusions, & Peace” – and Mitchell understands that he is in a competition of theory at the highest diplomatic level.  John Kyl tries to throw a monkey into the wrench of the State Department nominees over Obama’s idealism on the Nuclear disarmament/Russia front.  Barzun & Kaplan, huge Obama investors and advisors, cash in their support chips as slots in the Ambassador realm along with 5 career FSOs.  And as Tehran heats up with opposition members, a New York Times journalist escapes his Taliban kidnappers in Afghanistan after 7 months of captivity in which the NYT conveniently kept silent about the situation for the most part.  Robin Wright speaks eloquently in a Times article about the Iranian situation and the symbol of the opposition, Neda.  Hillary Clinton officially brings in Blumenthal under her wing and the United States officially opens diplomatic ties with Syria, by returning an Ambassador to Damascus after a 4 year spat.  Laura Rozen is at her best this week.   The Cable is, bar none, the best barometer for the pressures in the Washington D.C. scene that I have found.

Gary H. Johnson, Jr. (7/26/09 2:20pmEST)

http://thecable.foreignpolicy.com

Israeli FM Lieberman’s Washington meetings
Wed, 06/17/2009 – 10:43am
Israeli Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman, founder of the right wing Yisrael Beiteinyu party, has arrived in Washington and is scheduled to meet with his counterpart Secretary of State Hillary Clinton at 2pm this afternoon.

There is not a lot of publicity about his visit, no doubt because Lieberman is a controversial figure at home and abroad, who has said Israel’s Arab citizens should be required to sign loyalty oaths; numerous Israeli reports have indicated that Lieberman is the subject of an on-going corruption investigation.

Among his other planned Washington meetings, according to the Israeli Foreign Minister’s bureau: National Security Advisor General James L. Jones, the chairmen of the Senate and House Foreign Affairs Committees, Sen. John Kerry (D-MA) and Rep. Howard Berman (D-CA), the chairman of the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee Sen. Joe Lieberman, House Minority Whip Rep. Eric Cantor (R-VA), Senate Minority Whip Sen. Jon Kyl (R-AZ) and unspecified other officials.  Lieberman also plans to visit the U.S. Holocaust Museum where a gunman killed a security guard last week, the bureau release said.

FP 2009 Update – Week 23 – The Cable

The Cable stepped up its game with Week 23 due to the Iranian Election fiasco.  Unfortunately, the fallout of the Hezbollah election was overshadowed in the process.  Laura Rozen covers a wide range of issues, beginning with speculation over the outcomes of the Iranian Elections, Obama’s conversation with Jordan’s Abdullah which yielded a desire for a 57 state comprehansive peace deal by the Arab leadership with Israel rather than simply a two state starter deal with the Palestinians.  Will we learn the lessons of Sadat, or run into a plethora of Arab holdout positions in a non-starter of a deal?  McChrystal was confirmed for the Afghan sphere, and a plethora of names for ambassador and state roles hit The Cable on the 11th.  It is interesting that Gary Sick, Juan Cole and The Daily Beast seem to feature in Rozen’s online research.  Obama plays coy and Biden is Biden on the Iranian issue – both staying on message “Engagement”.  Amid the Iranian uproar, Dennis Ross’ title, which was already fuzzy shifts again as his move to the NSC is uncovered by Rozen.  The Jimmy Carter push to legitimize Hamas and bring the terror group to the negotiating table and to remove them from the FTO list is in full swing as his delirium reaches a fevered pitch of anti-semitism.

Gary H. Johnson, Jr. (7/25/09, 3:55pmEST)

http://thecable.foreignpolicy.com

As Iran votes, all quiet on the western front
Wed, 06/10/2009 – 4:00pm
Official Washington is laying low and saying little as tectonic plates appear to be shifting in the run-up to Iran’s presidential elections, to be held Friday.

Despite dramatic images this week of the largest campaign demonstrations taking place in Iran since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, including a human chain of as many as a million supporters for former Prime Minister Mir Hossein Mousavi, the leading opposition candidate, the Obama administration has remained largely silent. The last thing officials want to do is say anything to jinx a process underway in Iran whose outcome is entirely outside of their control — and yet may ease one of their most pressing challenges.

FP 2009 Update – Week 22 – The Cable

Week 22 is a fast read.  Laura Rozen cites a Nasrallah speech, and speeds you over to Lynch for the weather on Obama’s Cairo speech… The fact that she’s hooked in to D.C. shows – 17 weeks into the Obama presidency and – she is still keeping track of the amazing expansion of the titled bureaucracy surrounding the new Presidency in street reporter fashion.  It is obvious there is a story behind every piece of intel.

Gary H. Johnson, Jr. (7/25/09, 4:14amEST)

http://thecable.foreignpolicy.com

National Security Network’s Feldman to become Holbrooke deputy
Wed, 06/03/2009 – 1:59pm
Another member of the National Security Network is ascending to a position in the Obama administration. Daniel Feldman — a long-time Democratic national-security hand, former Clinton-era NSC official, and former aide to the presidential campaigns of Al Gore, John Kerry and Hillary Clinton — will take a job as one of two deputies working for U.S. special representative to Afghanistan and Pakistan Richard Holbrooke, The Cable has learned. Holbrooke’s other deputy is Paul Jones. One of Feldman’s primary tasks is expected to be coordinating with Congress.

Feldman, now an attorney with Foley Hoag, serves on the board of the Democratic-leaning national security group, the National Security Network. Other NSN board members to have joined the administration include former Clinton and Bush-era NSC official Rand Beers, who is in the confirmation process to become under secretary of national programs at the Department of Homeland Security, former Clinton-era NSC Africa hand Gayle Smith, now the senior director for relief, stabilisation and development in Obama’s NSC, and academic and writer Rosa Brooks, who has become a principal advisor to the under secretary of defense for policy, Michele Flournoy.

FP 2009 Update – Week 21 – The Cable

Week 21 at Laura Rozen’s The Cable was instructive in many ways…  Carl Levin holds up a key Middle East Diplomat’s nomination confirmation to bring light on an age old Libya reparations battle.   Egyptian and Palestinian leadership descend on DC.   Saudi Arabia is added to Obama’s stopover list for his overseas jaunt which is designed to continue building international G-20 support and Muslim Accomodation.  Paul Farmer’s name is added to the list of possible heads for USAID – his 20 year history of making water out of wine in the poverty laden world medical community is unmatched.   Netanyahu pragmatically offers a settlement freeze in exchange for unconditional support on Iranian issue – beyond that, his response was basically “What the Hell does Obama want from me?”   Saudi Arabia puts a leash on Western journalists following Obama’s trail.  Israeeli Foreign Minister Barak has an impromptu 15 minute meeting with Barack Obama, who drops in on his meeting with Gen. Jim Jones.  Sarkozy begins overtures and direct engagement with Iran as a lead up to Obama’s travel plans.

Gary H. Johnson, Jr. (2:57amEST)

http://thecable.foreignpolicy.com

Libya claim delays Feltman confirmation vote
Tue, 05/26/2009 – 3:18pm
A compensation claim regarding Libya appears to be delaying the confirmation vote of Jeffrey Feltman to become assistant secretary of state for Near Eastern affairs, The Cable has learned.

Feltman’s nomination was forwarded by the Senate Foreign Relations Committee to the full Senate last week. But last Friday, before they broke for Memorial Day, Sen. Carl Levin (D-MI), usually a reliable Obama White House ally, put a hold delaying a Senate vote on the nomination until after the week-long recess, apparently at the request of an unidentified constituent with an unspecified, Libya-related claim. The case does not have to do with the 1988 bombing of Pan Am flight 103 over Lockerbie Scotland, but officials would not specify what it was regarding.

Ya Libnan – 2 Week Update – 7/22/09

http://yalibnan.com/site/archives/2009/07/wednesday_news_54.php
Wednesday News Briefs & Editorial
Published: Wednesday, 8 July, 2009 @ 10:08 AM in Beirut
Beirut- Despite UN Security Council resolution 1701 that halted the 2006 war between Israel and Hezbollah, the Israeli spy agency Mossad has been focusing on Lebanon ever since . A Lebanese army colonel suspected of spying for Israel fled to the Jewish state last week and two other Lebanese army colonels have been detained between May and June on charges of spying for Israel.

The army colonel that fled was identified as D.J. and two the other detained Lebanese army colonels were identified as Mansour Diab and Shahid Toumiyeh.

The probe into spying for Israel that has led to more than 50 arrests so far and 20 of those detained have been formally charged.

Lebanon has described the arrests as a major blow to Israel’s intelligence-gathering

Lebanon has formally complained to the United Nations about its findings, accusing Israel of breaching UNSCR 1701 and U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon said Tuesday that he was concerned at the Lebanese allegations of spying.

“The allegations, if proved, could endanger the fragile cessation of hostilities that exists between Israel and Lebanon,” Ban said in his report .

Hezbollah, which is the primary target of the Israeli spying activity has called for the execution of those convicted. Apparently one of the suspects was involved in the 2004 assassination of Hezbollah commander Ghalib Awali, security officials have said. Awali was killed by a bomb in the southern suburbs of Beirut.

According to Johnny Haddad, a military analyst , “Hezbollah, which is backed by Iran and Syria has been for years intimidating and demoralizing the Lebanese army and this has helped Israel in recruiting army members for its spying activity.”

This is of course no excuses for spying for an aggressive, expansionist and vicious enemy like Israel , but that is what happens when an army finds itself intimidated by a militant group within its own borders and whose objectives may not be in Lebanon’s best interests. Hezbollah, which claims to be a resistance force with the sole objective of liberating occupied Lebanese land and defending the Lebanese territories has used during the past 3 years its weapons against the Lebanese citizens: May 7 2008 occupation of west Beirut and the unsuccessful attempt to occupy mount Lebanon are witnesses to Hezbollah’s use of its arms against the citizens of this country.